Watchmaker: How I'd play Gulfstream on Saturday, Jan. 17

Depending on how you’re going, there are a lot of opportunities to get well or get into trouble on Saturday’s card at Gulfstream. But I’m focusing on the latter portion of the program, specifically the late pick four, because I think the early part of the card has the potential to break chalky.

Morning-line favorite Cheyenne Nation is spotted to win in the opener, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s back with trainer Chad Brown. Cheyenne Nation won three times for Brown at the start of his career from 2009-11.

I’m not crazy about the 5 1/2-furlong to 8 1/2-furlong stretch-out that J S Bach is taking in the second race. But the 92 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in chasing home a good one in his only start towers over this field, which is why he’s the likely favorite. And if J S Bach doesn’t win, then the other Todd Pletcher-trained entrant and likely second choice, Old Mountain Lane, probably will.

I also don’t have any big knocks on the morning-line favorites in races 3, 4, and 5 – Libby’sluckycharm, Sayler’s Creek, and Happy My Way. I’m not saying they all have to win, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they did (especially Sayler’s Creek) to close out a modest early pick four.

The late pick four, which starts in race 8, the Sunshine Millions Distaff, has the potential to be a different story. The Distaff might be the best betting race of the card. I like Toasting (8-1 on the morning line, but I expect her to be lower) off the favorable cutback in distance and her past success over the track. But I’m also interested in two other distance turnbacks who can absolutely get involved on their best – Tapit’s World and Sheer Drama. They are 12-1 and 15-1 on the morning line.

Waterway Run is the 2-1 morning-line favorite in race 9, the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf, but I don’t think she has any appreciable edge on this group. Among others in this race, I’m most interested in Speed Seeker, who had a very nice prep win for this at Tampa Bay Downs, and Rock On Baby, who has every right to improve off a sharp second in her recent return from a one-year absence.

Transparent, Wildcat Red, and East Hall are pegged at 9-5, 2-1, and 5-2 on the morning line in the 10th race, the Sunshine Millions Classic. I’ll be leaning heavily on Transparent, whose last effort in the Cigar Mile is a throw-out (poor start, against a strong track bias) and who showed flashes of being a good one in the past.

East Hall, a winner of three of his last four starts and in career form, is my backup. I won’t be using Wildcat Red. I realize he was a narrowly beaten second at this 1 1/8-mile distance in last year’s Florida Derby. But he was aided by the track and an extremely slow pace. I just don’t think Wildcat Red is a true nine-furlong horse.

In the finale, probable favorite Grey Wizard is totally logical off a solid second at Belmont last fall in his only start. But I’m also very interested in two others who will be square prices – Epsilon and Danish Dynaformer.

Epsilon’s two races last year were so-so, but today he is a first-time gelding, first-time blinkers, and first-time Lasix. First-time Lasix is a huge move for Epsilon’s trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin. Danish Dynaformer ran okay in his only start at Woodbine but should relish the switch to turf and is also first-time Lasix and blinkers.