Watchmaker: How I'd play Gulfstream for Saturday, Jan. 10
Saturday’s card at Gulfstream is loaded with quality late, as one might expect this time of year, but the early portion of the program is surprisingly shaky. Four of the first five races are for maidens, with three of those four being maiden-claiming affairs. And the two weakest maiden claimers are slotted for races 2 and 5, which bookend the early pick four.
However, there still might be good cause to get involved early, specifically in the early pick four, depending on what you think of Commissioner in the third race. Commissioner will be heavily favored in his first start since his near miss in the Belmont Stakes, and he does sport purposeful works for a Todd Pletcher barn that certainly knows what to do with layoff horses. But taking a short price on a horse coming off a seven-month injury-related absence, and whose best race by far was at the uncommonly run distance of 1 1/2 miles, is not my cup of tea.
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Many people will be singling Commissioner in this pick four sequence, so if you can beat him, you will put yourself in a position to get paid. I think Ulanbator, who showed signs last year of potentially being a capable stakes performer, and Dawly, who is suitably cutting back in distance and is in a more favorably sized field this time, are strong alternatives to Commissioner. I could even use Dudeman on the possibility that he could be loose early.
Of course, if I do jump in on the early pick four, I’d have to narrow the ticket somewhere. The fourth race, the straight maiden race in the sequence, and a weak one at that, is the likely spot. I have the utmost respect for trainer Bill Mott, but I usually don’t fall for his firsters. Xtra Spice could be the exception. She’s by Quality Road out of champion Xtra Heat, and doesn’t have to be much. Of the ones who’ve raced, I prefer Tar and Feather, who might have the most speed and is backed by a good second-out barn.
Lea’s return in the Hal’s Hope (race 7) is not a part of the late pick four, but is the first leg of the pick five. I try to avoid starting pick fours or fives with short-priced horses, but if the odds on Lea and Valid are as close as their morning line odds of 9-5 and 2-1, then I will play the pick five. Valid is a very nice horse in raging form, and he has a massive recency edge on Lea. But I believe Lea is simply in a different league than these. Sure, the 11-month absence is a concern, but Lea has always run well fresh off works.
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Gulfstream’s late pick four has the card’s other two stakes, and I have opinions in those. In the Marshua’s River, race 8, I like Strike Charmer for the upset. I really liked her win in the Cardinal most recently, and think she’s turned the corner for the better. But I will use Parranda and Summer Moon defensively. Parranda has the best class lines, though she is prepping for a race next month in Singapore. Summer Moon is first-time U.S. for trainer Chad Brown, who is just as good with those types of horses at Gulfstream as he is in New York.
Race 10 is the Ft. Lauderdale, and I like Mutin off a strong win in his U.S. debut. But in varying degrees of strength, I’ll also use Lochte, Mshawish, Mosler, and Za Approval.
The one quibble I have with the pick five and late pick four sequences is the positioning of the 11th and last race, a straight maiden dash on the turf. This race has five first-time starters in the body of the field, and you can’t tell which ones are getting bet even using the possible double payoff method. My best guess at this moment is you have to use three of those firsters – Songbook, Killer Partner, and Princess Fiona – as well as three who have raced – Presto Magic, Vandelita, and Holiday Twist.