Watchmaker: How I'd play Gulfstream on Saturday, Feb. 21

Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes card at Gulfstream, which also includes the seasonal debut of the 2014 Eclipse Award-winning older male and turf male Main Sequence, achieves the desired blend of being long on quality and long on betting opportunities. Let’s take a look at it:

If you’re interested in the early pick four, which begins in race 2, you have to be thankful that the races in this wager were sequenced the way they were. The third race is a straight maiden race for 3-year-olds, and 11 of the 14 entrants are first-time starters. If this race were slotted later in this pick four, it would have rendered this pick four unplayable for me because any sort of wagering on it would have been completely hidden from view. But by slotting it as the third race, we have the opportunity to check out the possible payoffs in the race 2 into race 3 double and get a fair idea of which of these many firsters look live because they’re taking money and which don’t.

Race 4 is the Rampart, and it’s only Wedding Toast and House Rules for me. I’m against Thank You Marylou, even off of two straight thirds in Grade 1 races at Santa Anita, including the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. I think Thank You Marylou is a closing sprinter, and I don’t like this stretch out to a mile for her.

Race 5 is the The Very One Stakes, and it’s nice to see Riposte back. For a time last summer, she was arguably the ranking female turf performer in the country. But I don’t trust her off the eight-month absence and also will use at least the underrated Kitten’s Point, who has run some fine races on Gulfstream’s turf.

:: GULFSTREAM PARK: Get PPs, watch Saturday’s card live

The story is pretty much the same in race 6, the Gulfstream Park Sprint. It’s nice to see Mean Season back after almost a year away due to injury as he has been freakishly spectacular winning all three of his starts. I couldn’t bet against Mean Season here, but I couldn’t take a stand with him as the favorite, either. Fortunately for me, this race falls in a dead spot on the card between the early pick four and the pick five and late pick four.

Race 8, the Davona Dale, is the first leg of the pick five, and I’m interested in Eskenformoney, who has been good since moving to dirt and who finished comparatively well in her most recent win. I also will use Puca, a troubled sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in her last start, even though she’ll be less than half of the 10-1 she is on the morning line. I also might use Cavorting, who was for a time last summer arguably the ranking 2-year-old filly in the land. I’m against the group coming out of the Forward Gal, as that race really fell apart late.

Main Sequence goes in race 9, the Mac Diarmida, and even though he might be merely prepping for Dubai, he still is a very likely winner at 2-5 or 3-5. The question I haven’t resolved yet is: Do I want to spend the extra money and also use Twilight Eclipse in some lesser degree of strength? That probably would sew this race up as he really looks like the only other horse.

Race 10 is the Canadian Turf, and as I explained in my Weekend Warrior column, I like Grand Tito. Simply put, Grand Tito ran the two best races of his life since switching barns, he’s got a perfect post for a one-mile turf race at Gulfstream, he projects to sit a perfect trip, and the cut back in distance is ideal for him. Grand Tito is a key to my gambling day Saturday.

The Fountain of Youth is race 11, and I can’t see beyond Upstart and Frosted. There was a wide gap between these two when they were one-two, respectively, in the Holy Bull. But there are reasons to think it could be much closer, if not possibly reversed this time. Not the least of those reasons is blinkers on for Frosted, which will put him in the game much earlier this time and might be just what the doctor ordered.

The finale and last leg of the pick five and late pick four features an imposing favorite in Dreaming of Gold. If you didn’t see his one start, do yourself a favor, fire up Formulator, and check out the replay. Dreaming of Gold, who took meaningful money in his debut, was badly impeded right after the start when the horse that broke next to him ducked in and lost his rider. That cost Dreaming of Gold, by a conservative estimate, about five to six lengths. He then made a big move into the far turn, was caught five wide on the far turn, somehow still reached the front in upper stretch, only to understandably run low on gas late and narrowly lose a stretch duel. To say Dreaming of Gold was miles the best that day wouldn’t come close to doing him justice, and if he runs anything like that here, he’ll win easily.