Watchmaker: How I'd play the Breeders' Cup late pick five on Saturday

A pick five encompassing the last five Saturday Breeders’ Cup races has been conspicuous by its absence for quite some time. Thankfully (or maybe not – let’s see how we do!), that void was filled this year.

The chances of me not participating in this offering are precisely zero. I will be playing this late Breeders’ Cup pick five, and I’ll play with gusto, because as is the case with almost everything Breeders’ Cup wagering related, the value is there. Big fields and quality depth ensure that even if the results are logical, you’ll still get paid at least reasonably well.

Here’s my play in a main/backup format for this pick five, which begins with the Sprint (race 7) and concludes with the Classic (race 11). Please note that I’m not going to get too much into the handicapping of each race in this sequence. My analyses for all 14 Breeders’ Cup races can be found elsewhere on drf.com and in print editions of DRF.

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Sprint – I’m taking a stand right out of the box and won’t be using probable favorite Imperial Hint anywhere. Sure, he won the Vosburgh easily, but he beat nothing. He’s also 0 for 2 at Churchill Downs and I question whether he likes the track.

My main horses here are Promises Fulfilled (my top pick), who is the main speed, and Roy H, who won this race last year and projects to sit a sweet stalking trip. My lone backup is Limousine Liberal, who was an unlucky third behind Promises Fulfilled last time and who loves Churchill’s main track.

Mile (race 8) – I’m using almost all the European horses and, for better or worse, none of the American entrants. My “A” horses are One Master (my pick), Happily, Polydream, and I Can Fly, who also happen to be my top four selections in this race, though not in that order. My backups are Expert Eye, Gustav Klimt, and Mustashry.

Distaff (race 9) – Likely favorite Monomoy Girl is my top pick and is my lone “A” horse. She’s the best 3-year-old filly in the country and showed it last time in the Cotillion by getting to the wire first despite racing on a dead rail for much of the way, only to be disqualified, and she’s going up against a shaky group of older opponents. Most importantly, she’s the main speed in a Distaff that lacks a lot of pace.

I don’t like having as many as three backups in this spot, but I do, and they are the enigmatic Abel Tasman, Midnight Bisou, who was placed first in the Cotillion, and Blue Prize, who is on a winning streak and is another who loves the Churchill main track.

Turf – Like the Mile, it’s all Europe for me here. Obviously, the sensational two-time Arc winner Enable is a main horse, but I will use Waldgeist, my pick for a mild upset, in equal strength. My lone backup is Talismanic, upset winner of this race last year, but drubbed by Enable in last month’s Arc.

Classic – Catholic Boy and Accelerate are my first two picks in that order, and they are my two “A” horses.

However, I will use five horses as backups, some of whom could really spice things up if my “A” horses get me through the first four legs of this sequence. My backups are McKinzie, Mendelssohn, Yoshida, Mind Your Biscuits, and Axelrod.

Here are the program numbers in a main/backup format:

Sprint – 2, 9/8

Mile – 1, 3, 4, 8/7, 13, 14

Distaff – 11/2, 7, 10

Turf – 2, 12/1

Classic – 3, 14/6, 9, 10, 11, 12

With no push on the all “A” ticket (one should always press the all “A” ticket) that’s a $132 play.