Watchmaker: How I'd play Belmont for Sunday, Oct. 12

On Saturday, It’s Easy and Political Force bookended the card at Belmont Park with victories. This caused much consternation among many “wise guy” players, because these two already had many chances to get their maiden wins, and they burned lots of money coming up short along the way. But It’s Easy and Political Force didn’t just win, they aired. And by doing so, they hammered home the basic lesson that stuff happens, from wins by shaky short-priced horses all the way up shockers by implausible longshots.

But even knowing that, it really does seem like you will have to be super creative to make something out of Sunday’s Belmont card. Either that, or swallow hard and prepare to accept a lot of short prices. Chalk does look strong throughout the card.

The opener, one of two off-the-turf races (the third race is the other off the grass), scratched down to a field of three. And it really seems like a two-horse race when you consider that Sandyinthesun’s Beyer Figures in his two career starts on dirt are 4 and 18.

Two other legs of the pick five (races 1 through 5) look like they might be dominated by favorites, and that isn’t to say the chalk can’t win the remaining two legs. But Most Happy Fella and Precious Metal are imposing in race 4, and Lotza Heat and Sole Train simply look like the right two horses in the fifth as the first two choices.

The late pick four, starting in race 7, includes a bingo free space in the eighth race in Constitution, who will be prohibitively favored. Yes, Constitution will be making his first start since winning the Florida Derby last March. But the horses who might have been able to make him run were scratched because they ran Saturday.

You will have to have a strong imagination to come up with someone other than Graceful Gal or Dreaming as Always in the finale, and they will be the first two choices by quite a ways. And Marbre Rose and Orient Harbor look like the right two in the seventh, and they figure to be the first and no worse than third favorites. The one potential saving grace in that race is Ballerina Belle, who always takes money even though she has eight times more second-place finishes than career wins.

Perhaps the most vulnerable favorite in the late pick four sequences is Annecdote in the Athenia Stakes in race 9. Annecdote was very impressive winning the Nobel Damsel last month in her U. S. debut, and if she is able to duplicate that performance, she will win. But even after scratches, Annecdote must break from post 10, and that is a lousy post position going 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf course at Belmont. Better priced alternatives here include Overheard, who was a solid in all three of her starts this year; La Tia, who will be alone on the lead; and Cushion, who impressed me when she won her U.S. debut two starts back.