Watchmaker: How I'd Play Belmont for Saturday, Sept. 12
The first Saturday card of the Belmont fall meet is, for me, an interesting betting program from the middle of the day on. These are the races I’m specifically looking at:
Race 5 – I’m interested in two horses making their first starts off the claim for sharp outfits that excel in such situations, and who are both also intriguingly cutting back in distance – Holy Invader and Media Kid. Holy Invader, who now goes for trainer Michelle Nevin, will be the more well bet of the pair off a solid win two starts back over the same Widener turf course he competes on Saturday. Media Kid failed at odds-on in his 2015 bow last May and hasn’t been seen since. But he didn’t miss a beat, working every seven days at Saratoga for new trainer Joe Sharp, and he has races last year that are good enough to win this.
Race 8 – Horses like Dark Roast, who has a record of 24 starts, 1 win, 6 seconds, and 7 thirds, were winning with unsettling regularity at Saratoga. I’m hoping for a return to normalcy back at Belmont, and will be looking to knock him and Boston Strong, who might have just as big an aversion to victory, out of the win end. I’ll be using All Over Me and longshot Mister Dooley, who like the two I like in the fifth race are making appealing distance cutbacks. All Over Me’s efforts at this first-level New York-bred allowance condition at Saratoga were good, including his sixth two back after contesting a very fast early pace. Mister Dooley flashed distinct signs of improvement in his two outings at Saratoga and looks to be poised for a peak performance.
Race 9, the Sands Point – There are four in this race right off the plane from Europe, but I think our 3-year-old filly turf performers are a strong group, even in the absence of the brilliant Lady Eli. I believe that because of the performance of Miss Temple City at Royal Ascot last June in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes. She ran a close fourth in that race, which is much better than anything the European shippers have to show.
Sentiero Italia and Miss Temple City (in her first start back in the U. S. after Royal Ascot) finished one-two in the Lake Placid at Saratoga, and they are the two I want here. In my heart I believe Sentiero Italia is the better of these two, but given the trips they had in the Lake Placid, I have to give Miss Temple City a chance to turn the tables. Sentiero Italia had a perfect inside-out closing trip in the Lake Placid, while Miss Temple City was floated five wide into the first turn, was three wide around both turns, and was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths.
Race 10 – Payment Terms, who was compromised by a slow pace when fourth in a New York Stallion Stakes most recently, and Wicked Freud, who ran well in both of his starts, are perfectly logical and must be used. But I’m also going to use Stardom, trying to force a mild upset. Stardom was a narrowly beaten second in a starter allowance race in his most recent start after a three- to four-wide trip to the much-improved Black Tide, and is back in with New York-breds Saturday.