Watchmaker: How I'd play Belmont on Saturday, Oct. 25

The goods news is, the weather has finally cleared, and with the exception of the fourth race, turf racing will go as scheduled at Belmont Park on Saturday, the penultimate card of the meet. And the better news is, Saturday’s card is a playable one.

Once you get past the Dropdown Derby in the opener involving Big Lute and Stalagmite, you come across an interesting maiden sprint on turf for 2-year-old fillies. Consumer Credit and Greywalls both had bad trips the last time they competed in such a race, especially Consumer Credit, and the last time Neilinger competed in a similar spot, it was in her debut at Saratoga in a race that has since proven to be productive.

In pick whatevers, you also have to include Emerald Pond because she’s a Chad Brown-trained juvenile firster on the turf and, well, we all know how those horses tend to perform.

River Rocks is the morning-line favorite in the third race, the Bold Ruler Handicap, and while I know he can win, I’m against him. He went with a big bias when he beat Salutos Amigos two starts back, and Salutos Amigos can turn the tables on him today. Romansh, off the massive class drop (three of his last four starts were in Grade 1 races), is a must-use. If you want to go a little deeper here, consider Confrontation, who had a no-chance trip last time in the Forego. I’ll be throwing him in.

The beauty of the sixth race is, even with people catching on to him as an emerging master hanger, Blue Pigeon, the beaten favorite in his last five, still will take plenty of money again. Finding a bet-against like this one is almost as valuable as finding one to bet on.

Because I’m Happy, who was third to Champagne winner Daredevil in his debut, and Street Jersey, who was bet strongly when third in his debut, look like the right horses in the seventh race, a 2-year-old straight maiden sprint. The firster I’m interested in right now is the Kiaran McLaughlin-trained Classy Class, who, notably for this barn, debuts with Lasix.

I’m against the two Brown-trained firsters in the seventh. How can I be for the Brown firster in the second race but against his two here? Because this race is on dirt. According to DRF Formulator, Chad Brown over the last five years at NYRA tracks with 2-year-old first-time starters on turf is 23 for 96 (24 percent), with a $2.55 return on investment. But with the same type of horses on dirt, he is 9 for 78 (12 percent), with a $1.17 ROI.

Finally, Giantinthemoonlite in the ninth race will be the key to my late pick four play. Giantinthemonlite was a sharp second last time out in what I feel was a significantly better race than this one.