Watchmaker: How I'd play Belmont for Saturday, May 9
Among a five-horse Peter Pan Stakes in race 3 (I like Wolf Man Rocket, but really, what kind of price could I possibly get?), a Ruffian Stakes in race 4 that also has only five betting interests, and Colonel Juanita and Darling Bridezilla looking strong in race 5, the early part of Belmont’s 10- race card on Saturday appears as though it could be chalky. For that reason, I will be focusing on the last half of the card, starting in race 6.
There are several ways one could go in race 6, a conditioned claiming turf sprint, but I’m most intrigued with the Tony Dutrow-trained shipper Pep the Champ. Pep the Champ’s last is a throw-out because it was on dirt, the wrong surface. His prior two routing on turf in tougher spots were okay efforts, especially his close third three back. But I really like turf sprints for Pep the Champ because the only time he ever raced in one was four starts back, his first outing with blinkers, and he romped by five. Considering the depth in this race, I would expect to get every bit of the 6-1 Pep the Champ is on the morning line.
Race 7 is the Beaugay, and I really like Radiator, who also happened to be the lead horse in my Weekend Warrior column this week. Yes, Radiator is up in class after a perfect trip win at Keeneland in her recent U. S. debut, but she showed a tremendous turn of foot in the stretch in that race. Moreover, she is from one of Juddmonte’s best families, being out of multiple Grade 1 turf stakes winner Heat Haze, and being from the immediate family of U. S. female turf champions Banks Hill and Intercontinental. Discreet Marq, the morning-line favorite who is making her 2015 bow in this race, is good, but far from unbeatable. I might single Radiator in the late pick four, if I play the late pick four. More on that in a bit.
Rectify and Dean Verdile might be enough to get through race 8. Rectify is obvious. He was favored in both of his starts and after finishing a gaining second in his debut following a slow start, he scored decisively last time out on the Wood Memorial undercard. But Dean Verdile ran well winning his recent debut over a very well-bet and well-connected first-time starter.
Race 9 is the Man o’ War, and Imagining, who predictably rebounded to win the Pan American after getting a curious ride in his first start this year, is a must use. So, too, for me, is Hardest Core, upset winner of the Arlington Million last summer. Hardest Core runs well fresh, and his eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf most recently was better than it looks on paper as he was absurdly used early to be part of an aggressive early pace.
I will also throw in Hyper despite the 18-month layoff he brings into this, as the Chad Brown barn is just unstoppable so far at Belmont. I won’t be using Twilight Eclipse on top. He’s an admirable hard hitter, but I’m just skeptical he can actually win at this level.
Race 10 is a straight maiden race going a mile on turf. And with at least four who have already started looking live, combined with five first-time starters in the body of the race (four of whom look live), it makes for an unnecessarily punishing last leg of the late pick four.
I have consistently railed in this forum against positioning races like this, with multiple firsters, as the last leg in multi-race exotic sequences. This positioning buries these races, meaning you don’t even have the option at looking at possible double payoffs to see which firsters are actually taking money. Racing offices do bettors, their customers, no favors by slotting these kinds of races this way.
Now, there are times when racing offices have no choice. They want to end a card with a race with a full field, and on some days, there might be no alternatives. But that is not the case at Belmont on Saturday. It would have been perfectly acceptable to flip-flop races 6 and 10. Race 6 has a full field, and is on a different turf course than the Man o’ War, which means consecutive turf races on the same course wasn’t even an issue. Slotting race 10 as race 6 would have gotten it out of both pick four sequences and the pick five, and would have made it the second leg of the pick six instead of the last leg.
Makes sense, right?