Watchmaker: How I'd play Belmont for Saturday, May 30

After a less than appealing offering last Saturday, Belmont Park rebounds this week with an interesting betting card on Saturday. Four of the 10 races strike me as especially intriguing, and those races are:

Race 3 – This is a high-priced maiden claiming route on the inner turf course. And rather than get involved with horses like Number One and Noble Hustle, who already took the substantial maiden special weight to maiden claiming class drop in their last starts and still couldn’t get it done, I would much rather focus on those who are making this class drop for the first time Saturday.

There are four such U. S. - raced horses in this race, and they are, from the rail out, Tiz Afleet, Caprock Kid, Kensington Court, and Lucky Leroy Brown. These four are trained by Bill Mott, Shug McGaughey, Todd Pletcher, and Linda Rice, respectively. Interestingly, according to DRF Formulator, all four of these trainers have posted a healthy win percentage and a positive return on investment over the last five years at NYRA tracks in turf routes with horses dropping from straight maiden races to maiden claiming races.

Of these four, I like Kensington Court the least. I know that might be courting disaster what with the way Pletcher is going at Belmont these days, but I just don’t care for the races he exits. I would like Lucky Leroy Brown the best as I do like the races he ran in last year, and he returns as a new gelding. But he drew the 10 hole, which is a very tough post going 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf course. I will still use him, but will lean more heavily on Tiz Afleet, whose last was better than it appears as he was close to a hot early pace, and Caprock Kid, whose second two starts back will make him very tough. They are well posted in the 1 and 2 holes.

Race 5 – Longfor the City and Tizquick are logical in this New York-bred optional claimer, but I’m going to try and get longshot This Hard Land back somewhere in vertical wagers. Although he has been away since April, This Hard Land did show signs of life finishing fourth in his last appearance, he has back races that are more than good enough, and he is not as pace-dependent as you might think for being a closer.

Race 8 – Global Positioning might have been the beaten favorite in his last three starts, but he was easily second best chasing Wincoma most recently in a legitimately fast race, and is logical. But I’m also interested in All Is Number, an improved second last time when he got back to sprinting on a dry track, and with blinkers on. His debut win four back is actually the best Beyer Figure in this field.

I suppose I will throw in Disco Partner, but only as a defensive saver. I didn’t care for his last two performances, though he might be helped this time by the addition of blinkers. I’m against New York Chrome, who figures to take a fair amount of money. While New York Chrome did improve getting his maiden win most recently in his second start, he must improve more to contend with these.

Race 10 – The one-mile distance of this low-level conditioned claimer could be the separator. I like Igotthediscoinme, who prepped on turf, the wrong surface, last time, is now back to dirt, and takes a meaningful class drop that just reeks of intent. I also like the fact that he ran well in a series of two-turn races over the winter at Aqueduct.

B. B.’s Remington will be a major player if he handles the stretch-out as he also drops off some reasonably good efforts. But if he handles the stretch-out is a big “if” for me. I’m more interested in Majestic Guy, who will get the trip and seems to have found his proper level, and who will be the better price.

As for possible favorite Clifton Pleasure, he’s dropping in class too, and his overall Beyers are better than most. But horses with records like Clifton Pleasure’s 14 starts, 1 win, 2 seconds, and 5 thirds just aren’t my cup of tea, and I could only use him underneath at best.