Watchmaker: How I'd play Belmont Park for Saturday, Oct. 24

The Empire Showcase Day program for New York-breds late in the fall meet at Belmont Park is traditionally a terrific betting card, and Saturday’s renewal is no exception. There are plenty of parimutuel opportunities throughout the day, but the following races will attract most of my attention:

Race 2, the Sleepy Hollow – He won’t be much of a price – in fact, he’s the morning-line favorite – but Get Jets is a stand-alone for me here in the multi-race exotics such as the pick five and the early pick four. Get Jets was an impressive winner at Saratoga at first asking, and he was best when a gaining second in the Bertram F. Bongard most recently. Sudden Surprise walked on the lead in the Bongard through profoundly slow fractions, compromising Get Jets's late kick, and yet still just barely held. There should be a more honest pace this time, which is to Get Jets’s benefit.

Race 3, the Hudson – At this writing, trainer Linda Rice was still on the fence as to whether to start Palace here or in next week’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Palace, winner of two Grade 1 races last year, is the 6-5 morning line favorite for the Hudson. From a betting standpoint, I selfishly hope Palace runs here because while he can certainly win, I just think he is removed from his best form despite the 102 Beyer Figure he got for finishing fourth in the Vosburgh most recently, and is therefore vulnerable.

I’m interested in Captain Serious and Weekend Hideaway, who are the two controlling speeds, but who are both rateable, which makes them capable of going around the track one-two.

Race 5, the Empire Classic Handicap – Empire Dreams in this race is one of my three Weekend Warrior plays this week.

Now, I’m not 100 percent sure Empire Dreams really wants this 1 1/8-mile distance. But I am confident he will like the return to Belmont Park, where he has done his best racing; will like the return to an extended one-turn race; and will really appreciate an honest pace, which he seems assured of getting if this field holds together. Empire Dreams was compromised by slow paces when third in the Evan Shipman last time out and when a very good second in the Saginaw three starts back. However, Empire Dreams was a convincing winner of the Commentator four back when he got fair fractions to rally into, and I look for that kind of performance from him Saturday.

Race 10, the Empire Distaff – Wonder Gal moves back in with New York-breds after three straight starts in Grade 1 stakes, hitting the board in two of them. Wonder Gal’s merits here are obvious, although I do think this 1 1/16-mile distance is really pushing it with her, even if she was third at this trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last fall. I think that Hot Stones, overmatched in the Grade 1 Beldame most recently but a runaway winner of the Saratoga Dew at Saratoga two back, is more reliable between this race’s two favorites.

That said, I am going to play around a little with Tahoe Tigress, who will be a price, in both horizontal and vertical wagers. Tahoe Tigress’s loss in the Saratoga Dew is a throw-out because she is another who has always done her best racing at Belmont, as she showed finishing second in open allowance races in her last two starts. Tahoe Tigress’s most recent second was particularly good as it was a no-pace, short-field affair, which didn’t suit her closing style, and she was up against the upwardly mobile Carrumba. But it was a good try, and I think Tahoe Tigress is now poised for a peak performance.