Watchmaker: How I'd play Belmont Park on Saturday, June 13

With six of Saturday’s 10 races at Belmont Park scheduled to be run on turf, bettors are going to have to keep an eye to the sky. According to the National Weather Service, there is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms, “mainly after noon,” so we all should be ready to make changes on the fly if necessary. But a 30 percent chance is better than the 50 percent chance that was in the forecast just 24 hours ago, so here’s hoping.

There are four races on the card I’m particularly interested in, starting with the opener. I realize Midsummer Delight will be tough. She passed a bunch of horses in her only start last fall and now returns at a reduced level for new, and capable, connections. Weekend Hottie is logical, too, off a close third at this level most recently, although I suspect the race she comes out of wasn’t as good as people think. But I’m intrigued with Light Years Away.

Light Years Away wasn’t that badly beaten after steadying early in a straight New York-bred maiden race in her recent return from a 5 1/2-month absence, and she now drops back in for a tag, adds blinkers, and gets a jockey switch, all while staying on turf. That last point is important. What Light Years Away’s return really did was confirm that she is light years (pun intended) better on turf than she is on dirt. Last fall, her only other attempt on turf was squeezed between some truly awful dirt performances that really cloud her form. Light Years Ahead was competitive to the stretch against better before weakening late in that turf race.

Race 5 is the featured Poker Stakes, and Il Campione makes his U. S. debut after being a champion at 2 and 3 in his native Chile. Il Campione is probably a runner, but he’d better be, because he’s facing an emerging turf force in Ironicus, the one I’ll be focusing on parimutuelly.

Ironicus won the messily run Dixie Stakes on the Preakness undercard. A bunch of horses were floated to the parking lot turning for home, while Ironicus never strayed much from the two path. Some might be inclined to downgrade Ironicus’s Dixie victory because of his cleaner trip, but I think that would be a mistake. Ironicus is improving dramatically from start to start, and the powerful late kick he employed to win the Dixie was the most impressive show from him yet.

I normally wouldn’t mention a race like the seventh race in a story like this because it drew only six horses. But the seventh race is the first leg of the late pick four, and I’ll be leaning most in this one on Knuckle Curve, who is third choice on the morning line.

Knuckle Curve stumbled at the start in his most recent appearance, which also happened to be his New York bow, but still finished a willing third to barnmate Victory Is Sweet. Victory Is Sweet was so impressive getting his maiden victory that day with a 100 Beyer Figure that I bet him when he ran back in the Chick Lang Stakes on the Preakness undercard despite the big class jump. Victory Is Sweet didn’t win the Lang – if he did, I would have hit the pick five – but he ran very well finishing second. I don’t think there is a Victory Is Sweet to stand in Knuckle Curve’s way in this spot.

Finally, race 10, a New York-bred straight maiden race on the turf, is one of the most interesting races on the card. I’m hoping the public goes for the Todd Pletcher-trained Sebonack, and the Chad Brown-trained pair of Woodford Pine and Overawe, because I’m against them. All three will be making their turf debuts off a handful of reasonably good efforts on dirt. But I take the surface switch for these three as a sign of desperation.

Sebonack, Woodford Pine, and Overawe might have some reasonably good dirt outings, but not good enough to win. The switch to turf suggests to me the connections might lack confidence these charges can get it done on dirt, the surface that was the first choice for them.

I like Jax Heritage, Memories of Peter, and Space Oddity, in that order. Jax Heritage finished second in both of his starts on turf. His most recent turf start, his first start of the year, was a very good one as he was part of a pace that otherwise collapsed.

Memories of Peter, a very good second in his second and final start last year, was compromised by a very slow pace when fourth in his seasonal bow, and can easily improve.

Space Oddity will be making his first start of the year Saturday. However, his one attempt on turf from four starts last year was a sharp second that would put him right in the mix.