Watchmaker: How I'd play the Belmont Park late pick four for Friday, June 8, 2018

It’s going to take some luck to get the late pick four at Belmont on Friday to pay anything more than action money. At least that’s how I feel, because I believe Sistercharlie in race 9, the New York Stakes, is an extremely likely winner at a short price.

In her only start of 2018, Sistercharlie won the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland in dominating fashion, crushing the strongest field of turf females assembled so far this year. She earned a 104 Beyer Figure, which is the highest figure earned by any horse in the field. Moreover, Sistercharlie won the Wiley going a 1 1/16-mile distance that is likely shorter than what she prefers. If anything, she figures to be only more effective at Friday’s 1 1/4-mile trip. I can’t fight Sistercharlie here. She’s a single for me.

The late pick four on Friday starts with race 8, the True North Stakes. If Limousine Liberal does indeed go in the Met Mile, that would leave a field of only seven. Likely favorite Bobby Abu Dhabi should sit a sweet stalking trip behind a hot pace and must be used. But deep closers Whitmore and Joking (who is coming off a 20-month layoff) appeal because they fit the anticipated pace scenario.

Race 10 is the Belmont Gold Cup and I will cast a wide net in this two-mile turf race hoping to get a price back and push this sequence into triple-digit payoff territory. I’ll use all three European shippers – Call To Mind, Prince of Arran, and Funny Kid – and the three U.S.-based horses I prefer – Run Time, Postulation, and Rocketry.

This pick four concludes with a marathon maiden turf test, and the three I want here are Into the Breach, Prompt, and Hampton Point.

Into the Breach is my main focus even if he has finished second in six of nine career starts. I feel his seconditis has been more circumstantial than a real indication of a refusal to win. I expect significant improvement off his first start this year, and a duplication of either of his first two attempts on turf in his last two 2017 starts would be good enough.