Watchmaker: How I'd play Aqueduct for Sunday, April 26
Sunday is closing day at Aqueduct and for some, after the winter and early spring we have seen, that is cause for celebration. However, at least Aqueduct closes in a positive way, with an interesting 1- race card spiced by three stakes races, and three turf races.
There are four races on the card I find especially interesting betting races, and they are races 4, 6, 7, and 10. Since two of those races – races 7 and 10 – bookend the late pick four, I’m sure I will be focusing most of my energy in that direction. But let’s look at each of these four events.
Race 4 – This is the first division of a split straight maiden race on turf for New York-bred females, and if Broken Border is anywhere near her morning-line price of 3-1, she will be a strong play. That is because if Broken Border runs back to her second last time out at Gulfstream, no one in this field will have an answer for her.
Broken Border wasn’t three wide on the far turn most recently at Gulfstream as her comment line in her past performances say – she was on the inside, moved to the two-path late on the turn, and then moved out after turning for home; honestly, I don’t know where some of these trouble lines come from – but even if she had a good trip, her gaining second, beaten only a little more than a length, was a fine performance. And making it look even better is the fact that three came out of that event to win their next starts, including the winner, Strict Compliance, who recently won an allowance race at Keeneland.
Aussie Prayer is a logical contender as she was an okay second last fall in her debut in her one start on turf, and she is backed by trainer Dave Donk, who is having an excellent Aqueduct meet. But if I were going to look at someone else, it would be Viva Malala. Viva Malala didn’t lift a hoof in an off-the-turf race in the slop in her only start last fall, but she is definitely turf meant, and it is a plus she spent the winter at Payson Park in Florida with the main division of Christophe Clement’s stable.
Race 6 – This is the second division of that split statebred maiden race, and Dreaming as Always is obviously the favorite. She ran well hitting the board in both of her starts last fall on turf, and she also wintered at Payson with Clement. However, there are two others in here who I find intriguing.
The first is Kitty Kat, who made her debut last month at Gulfstream and finished 10th of 12, but was compromised by a poor post and a slow start. I’m expecting significant improvement second time out, and especially off the move in with New York-breds.
The other is Spa Duchess, a first time starter from the ever-dangerous James Bond barn. She also wintered in Florida and brings a very active workout tab to the table, including a couple of recent turf works at Palm Meadows.
Race 7 – This is a loaded entry-level allowance sprint on the main track, and I’m against two horses who are certain to take money, First Down and Warrior’s Crown. First Down goes in an allowance race for the first time after two Grade 2 stakes starts against the likes of Upstart, Frosted, Blofeld, and El Kabeir, while Warrior’s Crown showed real potential in his first three starts. But First Down just stopped cold in the Holy Bull, a race I expected more from him since he was first-time Lasix. And Warrior’s Crown will be making his first start in almost a year, and I side against 5-year-olds like him who have raced but a few times off absences like that.
My preferences here are Indian Brut and Energetico. Indian Brut is completely logical given how competitive he was against solid company at Gulfstream in his last three starts in races like this one. Energetico, in an overall sense, looks a little cheap on paper compared with others here. However, he was competitive with some extremely tough horses when second in one of the New York Claiming Championship stakes in his last start, and a duplicate performance would make him a big threat.
Race 10 – This is the remaining turf race on the card, and for such a race for open older claimers, there is a surprising number of entrants in the body with either very shaky, or zero grass form.
Rope a Dope is probably the horse I like best on the card. He was beaten less than four lengths when sixth for a higher claiming tag than this last time at Gulfstream after being in traffic for much of the stretch run, and not being abused when it was clear he couldn’t win. I like Rope a Dope’s aggressive race placement first start off the claim, and I like the fact his new connections are putting blinkers back on him.