Watchmaker: How I'd play Aqueduct on Saturday, Nov. 8

In this piece, I’m supposed tell you what my strategy is for tackling Saturday’s card at Aqueduct, but aside from offering a couple of general ideas, this is a rare occasion where I’m simply unable to fulfill my mission.

Why? Because of the way Aqueduct’s main track played the first three days of this racing week.

On Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, the rail was dead on the Aqueduct main track. And at some points during those cards, it appeared the wider you were, the better. But it turned dry, clear, and cold overnight into Saturday in New York. The wet tracks that prevailed Thursday and Friday gave way to a main track labeled “good” Saturday morning. And given the ideal drying conditions, it would be no surprise if the track was upgraded to fast by early afternoon.

Track biases are, in most cases, fragile things that can come and go quickly. With the significant change of conditions overnight, there is no guarantee we’ll see another surface Saturday biased in favor of outside runners. But at the risk of confusing the issue, know that when the rail was dead Wednesday at Aqueduct, the surface was dry, so …

With such uncertainty, you really need to see a race or two Saturday before coming to any conclusions about the track. In other words, you shouldn’t go in with a bunch of ironclad notions, and you should instead be open to considering horses you might not really like but could benefit if an outside bias remains.

Also, keep your eyes open in addition to your mind. You might see a horse rally strongly up the rail in the opener, but that won’t necessarily mean the track is significantly different. It’s possible that horse simply ran a huge race against a continuing bias. You won’t really know for sure that the track has changed until you see another horse or two run effectively inside.

Shameless plug or not, the best thing to do is to tune in to live.drf.com during the day where, among many other actionable bits of information, you’ll find the latest updates on potential track biases.

All of this means the pick five, which begins in the first race, is off the table for me. But the same might not be so for the early pick four, which begins in the second race, one of two races off the turf Saturday (the ninth is the other). I like main-track-only entrant Kick Off in the second. Kick Off, who will be bet, caught hot fields in his first two starts, was going sneaky well at the finish in his last, and will appreciate the added distance he gets today. Kick Off drew outside, so he’ll only be even more appealing if the track still is biased (providing the jock doesn’t inexplicably steer him to the rail), but I think he’s the one on a fair track, too.

In the fifth race, which is on the turf and is the last leg in the early pick four, Sky Painter is my main horse off a fine third last time out despite a ridiculous trip. With firm opinions in the bookend races of this pick four, I can spread in the middle races to account for all potential bias scenarios, making the bet playable even in uncertain conditions.

Finally, my main idea late in the card is Tabreed in the seventh race, the Long Island Handicap on the turf. Details on my thoughts here can be found in my Weekend Warrior column, but the quick story is: I think Tabreed might be aided by cut in the ground, and she’s an appealing price alternative to the logical but not especially compelling favorites.