Watchmaker: How I'd play Aqueduct on Saturday, April 16
With heavy favorites who look hard to beat in race 4 (Cloontia) and race 5 (Bustin the Bank) – races that also happen to be the last two legs in the pick five and early pick four – I’m focusing my attention Saturday at Aqueduct on the second half of the card, specifically races 6 and 9.
Race 6
For better or worse, I’m playing against the horses coming out of the At Guard race on March 26 (morning-line favorite Dark as Midnight, Hot Squad, and Won Dozen Banks). I just don’t think that race was especially strong, so that leaves me leaning on Adulator as the logical alternative.
Adulator was sent off as the 6-5 favorite against 11 opponents in his debut last month at Gulfstream. It should be noted that the race Adulator comes out of was far from the strongest 3-year-old maiden special weight race seen all winter at Gulfstream.
There was very little form in that race, perhaps explaining why Adulator not only took the amount of money he did, but also explaining why the clear-cut second and third choices were also first-time starters. And the fact that the first two finishers, at 30-1 and 16-1, were two of the four who previously ran, and not particularly well at that, does not flatter that race either.
However, Adulator lost whatever chance he had when he broke about three lengths slow, and it is to his credit that he made a sustained five-wide run into contention before weakening late. He should be a much tougher customer for that experience.
While I’ll be pressing Adulator, I’m also going to use Basic Hero, who should be a good price. Basic Hero, who will be making his 2016 debut, made three starts last year, on the turf at Saratoga and then on sloppy and muddy tracks at Belmont, so this will be his first opportunity on a fast track.
Basic Hero finished third in both of his starts at Belmont against a few well-regarded opponents, and I’m intrigued by how he showed speed in the first of those outings and then improved his position in the other.
Race 9
This race is at one mile on turf, meaning there is a short run to the first turn. That is a problem for morning-line favorite Live in Joy, who faces a tough task navigating a decent trip from post 12.
Dream Man is logical and is a must-use here. He was in with much better at Gulfstream two starts back, was a much more competitive third there most recently when dropped to this $25,000 claiming level, and appears primed for a peak performance in his third start off the layoff.
That said, Street Shark and Wildniteattheopera are two price horses I’ll be using in equal strength. Aside from one forgettable start on dirt last December, Street Shark hasn’t raced since last June. However, he finished first in his last three starts on turf, and any one of those efforts would be good enough to get the money here.
Wildniteattheopera would definitely be a factor here if able to run back to his second-place finish in his turf debut last summer at Belmont in a solid second-level New York-bred allowance race. And the fact that Wildniteattheopera secured his first win in quite some time most recently, albeit over cheaper and on dirt, indicates that he is at least in decent form. So, he might be able to get close to his one good turf attempt.