Watchmaker: High Beyer numbers at Parx surprising

The preliminary Beyer Speed Figures for Saturday’s card at Parx Racing were posted early Sunday, and the numbers for the two top races of the day – the Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion – are big.

The Pennsylvania Derby received a preliminary Beyer of 107. That means McKinzie ran six Beyer points higher than his previous career-best, and did so off an absence of slightly more than than six months. It also means that Pennsylvania Derby runner-up Axelrod ran 10 points higher than his previous career best.

As for the Cotillion, first-place finisher Monomoy Girl and the narrowly beaten second-place finisher Midnight Bisou both got Beyers of 101. That means Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou ran three and seven Beyer points higher, respectively, than their previous bests after both were literally all over the track through the stretch.

Far more often than not, when a race is strong from a speed-figure standpoint, and the Beyer folks clearly thought the Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion were strongly run races, it is also strong from a visual perspective. Not this time. Not for me, anyway. Frankly, I was surprised the figs for the Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion came back as high as they did because visually, I thought these races were run in a fashion that was, to put it diplomatically, inelegant.

Don’t get me wrong. Monomoy Girl ran very well in the Cotillion, if for no other reason than that she was trapped for a big chunk of the race near the inside on a Parx main track, where the inside in all of the day’s preceding dirt races was demonstrably and profoundly dead. It looked from a distance like jockey Florent Geroux was trying desperately to get away from the inside, but the only way he could have pulled that off was to take Monomoy Girl back off the pace, and that was a no-go for a filly whose primary calling card is her positional speed.

Monomoy Girl was finally able to get away from the inside going into the far turn, and it was soon after that Midnight Bisou emerged as her main challenger.

Midnight Bisou, four wide on the first turn and four wide through most of the far turn (certainly not two wide as incorrectly noted in the official chart footnote), was rolling approaching the stretch when she was inexplicably steered toward the dead inside by jockey Mike Smith.

Nevertheless, Midnight Bisou was looking like a serious threat at that point, and that set up the Cotillion’s controversial stretch run.

In upper stretch, Monomoy Girl came in and intimidated Midnight Bisou by taking away her path. That forced Smith to angle Midnight Bisou to the outside of Monomoy Girl, who then drifted out fairly sharply, intimidating Midnight Bisou once more.

Right here, let me say that the first move by Monomoy Girl of drifting in was, I thought, pure race riding by Geroux. But I’m not so sure about the subsequent drift out because Geroux was using the stick from the right side, and that drift out by Monomoy Girl has me wondering a bit.

Then again, much of this might possibly have been avoided if Midnight Bisou had remained outside in the four of five path late on the far turn and into the stretch. It would have taken some guts to concede all of that ground when the inside was that wide open. But the inside was that wide open for a very good reason: it was quicksand down there. And Midnight Bisou simply did not have to vacate her position out in what was by far the better footing.

In any case, as we all know, Monomoy Girl was disqualified from first in the Cotillion and placed second behind Midnight Bisou. I realize the “no blood, no foul” crowd will disagree, but I agree with this disqualification. Monomoy Girl clearly intimidated and cost Midnight Bisou position in the stretch not just once, but twice, and the margin between them at the finish was only a neck.

Let me also be clear and state that while he came up short on style points, McKinzie also ran very well to prevail in the Pennsylvania Derby. I mean, he was not only coming off a six-month-plus layoff, he also shipped across the country, and had to go as far as 1 1/8 miles for the first time in his career.

Mike Smith was smart in getting McKinzie to the outside nearing the first turn into the four or five path, but while in control in upper stretch, McKinzie ducked in to the deep inside part of the track. From there, he swished his tail in an apparent reaction to Smith’s left-handed stick, and then he ducked once more inside at midstretch, looking for a fleeting second like he might even hit the rail. Anyway, one more reason to credit McKinzie’s Pennsylvania Derby comeback was he spent the last furlong or so on the worst part of the track, and my guess as to why he wound up down there in the first place is he had become fatigued.

The big disappointment in the Pennsylvania Derby was the promising Hofburg, who took a decided step backward from his fine third in the Belmont Stakes and his compelling victory in the subsequent Curlin. Hofburg was out in the best part of the track nearly the entire way, and yet he was able to snare only fourth money by a half-length from Core Beliefs. Core Beliefs was a very creditable fifth after being on the rail to midstretch, where he finally moved slightly off the inside, and is a definite bet-back for me - in the right spot, of course.

Two other against-the-Parx-bias stakes bet-backs for me are Zanotti and Seven Trumpets.

Zanotti finished second in the Pennsylvania Derby Champion Stakes after racing on or near the dead inside the entire trip. This, of course, was the race in which Collected made his first start since early this year. But last year’s Pacific Classic winner and Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up was a dismal fourth at 2-5, his effort being even worse than it looks on paper as he was out in the best part of the track.

Seven Trumpets finished third in the Gallant Bob, but he might have been best. Seven Trumpets was beaten less than two lengths for all the money after racing on or near the dead rail the entire race.