Watchmaker: Gulfstream Park pick four for Pegasus card
I will know very early where I stand in Saturday’s late pick four at Gulfstream – the sequence that ends with the Pegasus World Cup – because I’m singling the Southern California shipper Marley’s Freedom in the first leg, race 9, the Hurricane Bertie Stakes.
Marley’s Freedom showed vast improvement last year at 3 and, after a blowout allowance score at Del Mar two starts back, was given a shot in the Grade 1 La Brea. Marley’s Freedom finished a respectable fourth in the La Brea behind Unique Bella, Paradise Woods, and Mopotism, who are simply better than what she meets in this spot. I expect Marley’s Freedom to be forwardly placed from the outset, though she is adaptable to any pace scenario, and I just much prefer her to Curlin’s Approval, whose big Gulfstream reputation – she is 7 for 11 on the main track there – might exceed her actual ability.
Race 10 is the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint, and my top pick is Rainbow Heir, who was nosed in this race last year and turned in his best effort since then last time out, winning the Aqueduct Turf Sprint. Rainbow Heir is a closer, a style I want in this one as I anticipate the speed will come back.
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I’ll also use Richard’s Boy, Conquest Enforcer, and Pay Any Price. Richard’s Boy was flat most recently but narrowly missed in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at this distance two starts back. Conquest Enforcer has interesting back races and seems primed for a peak effort in his second start off the layoff. Pay Any Price has won five of his last six, including three straight stakes, and is the best of the speed horses.
Race 11 is the South Beach Stakes, and I think Celestine is probably still the best horse in this one even if she slipped a bit during a spotty 2017 campaign. However, Celestine drew a tough outside post, which makes her very vulnerable and makes this a spread race for me. My main pushes here are the in-form, off-the-pace runners Stormy Victoria, Storm the Hill, and Westit. I’ll only include Celestine defensively, along with the sharp but poorly drawn Ghostly Presence.
This sequence wraps up with the Pegasus, on which I went into detail in my Weekend Warrior column. Bottom line, I’m going with Gunnevera for the upset because, as noted in the Warrior, his recent form is darkened, he likes Gulfstream, and his closing style fits the expected pace scenario. I’m trying to beat the formidable Gun Runner, who is the best horse in this race by many lengths but isn’t an appealing betting proposition at a short price from a bad post, though he must be used for pick-four purposes.
I’ll also throw in as backups Sharp Azteca, a monster miler who is an unknown going nine furlongs, and West Coast, who might fall into the sweetest trip of all in this field from post 2.
Here’s the play, listed in main/backup format to illustrate my preferences in each race:
Race 9: 1
Race 10: 2,6,7/8
Race 11: 1,9,10/11,12
Race 12: 6,10/2,4
