Watchmaker: Giving the Kentucky Oaks the Derby Watch treatment
As the spring classics approach, the big differences this year between the 3-year-old male and 3-year-old female divisions come into sharp focus.
This entirely likeable 3-year-old male crop has two sensational, undefeated colts in Justify and Magnum Moon who are perhaps the biggest threats we’ve ever seen to end the streak born in 1882 of every Kentucky Derby winner since then having raced at 2.
It has the regally bred (he’s a half-brother to four-time Eclipse Award winner Beholder) and regally connected (he’s a member of the internationally powerful Aidan O’Brien barn) Mendelssohn, who won the UAE Derby in his first attempt on dirt by a mere 18 1/2 lengths, making him by far the most serious Kentucky Derby threat ever to come out of Dubai.
It has, to name just two more and at the risk of excluding other notables, 2-year-old male champion Good Magic and Bolt d’Oro, unquestionably the two best 2-year-olds of 2017, who have run well enough this year to come into this Derby with very live chances of winning.
And this 3-year-old male division has been blessed with good health (knock on wood). The only high-profile loss in the run-up to the Derby was McKinzie, whose hock injury will force him to miss the Triple Crown events.
The 3-year-old filly division hasn’t been so lucky. Caledonia Road, last year’s champion 2-year-old filly, has had her schedule messed with by an ankle chip and then illness. Road to Victory, who handed Monomoy Girl her only defeat when she nailed her in the strongly run Golden Rod last fall, just had her first published workout of the year last week. And Dream Tree, the only one to have beaten Midnight Bisou, having done so narrowly twice last year, was shelved last month with a minor issue.
With the undefeated and very talented Rushing Fall remaining on turf for the time being at least, these significant defections have created a situation in this 3-year-old filly division where, unlike the considerable depth found in the 3-year-old male division, there is a substantial quality gap between the top two and everyone else.
Monomoy Girl won laughing in her two starts this year, one (the Rachel Alexandra) from last in a field of seven, the other (the Ashland) after making virtually all of the pace. Midnight Bisou aired in her three starts this year (the Santa Ynez, Santa Ysabel, and Santa Anita Oaks), also demonstrating versatility in terms of running style. At this point, these two just simply look better than their active contemporaries.
One constant, however, is that the Kentucky Oaks, which will feature the first meeting between Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou, is being overshadowed by the Derby. This happens every year. It’s a testament to how big the Derby really is. But it is a shame that the Oaks – the most important race in our 3-year-old filly division – gets second-fiddle treatment. It deserves better.
In that spirit, I built a Derby Watch-like grid for the Oaks again this year, with my future-book odds and a comment for each Oaks aspirant currently listed by Churchill Downs as being in the starting field on points.
Here it is:
|
HORSE/ SIRE |
WATCH ODDS |
LAST RACE/ FINISH/ BEYER FIGURE |
COMMENT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monomoy Girl | 5-2 | Ashland, 4/7 | MW: Was miles the best winning both of her starts this year, likely favorite will be very tough to beat. |
| by Tapizar | 1st by 5 1/2, 95 | ||
| Midnight Bisou | 3-1 | Santa Anita Oaks, 4/7 | MW: Southern California's answer to Monomoy Girl aired in her three starts this year, the main threat. |
| by Midnight Lute | 1st by 3 1/2, 90 | ||
| Eskimo Kisses | 10-1 | Ashland, 4/7 | MW: No match for Monomoy Girl when second in the Ashland, might enjoy the stretch to 1 1/8 miles. |
| by To Honor and Serve | 2nd by 5 1/2, 85 | ||
| Coach Rocks | 12-1 | Gulfstream Park Oaks, 3/31 | MW: Gulfstream Oaks win made her 2 for 2 routing on dirt, but must improve from a Beyer standpoint. |
| by Oxbow | 1st by 1 1/2, 80 | ||
| Rayya | 12-1 | UAE Derby, 3/31 | MW: Second to serious Ky. Derby threat Mendelssohn in Dubai. Was also beaten from here to Dubai. |
| by Tiz Wonderful | 2nd by 18 1/2, n/a | ||
| Chocolate Martini | 15-1 | Fair Grounds Oaks, 3/24 | MW: Improved by 24 and 26 Beyer points off the $25K Tom Amoss claim three back, not out of this. |
| by Broken Vow | 1st by a head, 88 | ||
| Classy Act | 15-1 | Fair Grounds Oaks, 3/24 | MW: Second to Monomoy Girl in the Rachel Alexandra, but Monomoy was so much the best it's silly. |
| by Into Mischief | 4th by 1 1/4, 85 | ||
| My Miss Lilly | 15-1 | Gazelle, 4/7 | MW: If you believe the 92 Beyer she got for winning the Gazelle - a huge if - then she has a real shot. |
| by Tapit | 1st 1/2, 92 | ||
| Take Charge Paula | 15-1 | Gulfstream Park Oaks, 3/31 | MW: Has finished first or second in 8 of 9 starts, but a best Beyer of 78 says she's just too slow to win. |
| by Take Charge Indy | 2nd by 1 1/2, 77 | ||
| Wonder Gadot | 15-1 | Fantasy, 4/13 | MW: Had no business losing the Fantasy, even by a nose, and has developed a hanging habit this year. |
| by Medaglia d'Oro | 2nd by a nose, 82 | ||
| Blamed | 20-1 | Sunland Park Oaks, 3/25 | MW: Crushed her competition in New Mexico in five straight, but low figures say she's in deep here. |
| by Blame | 1st by 6 1/4, 79 | ||
| Red Ruby | 20-1 | Honeybee, 3/10 | MW: Her biggest win - the Martha Washington - came in slop, fast track starts so so, praying for rain. |
| by Tiznow | 4th by 5, 76 | ||
| Sassy Sienna | 20-1 | Fantasy, 4/13 | MW: Was 0 for 5 in stakes until she upset the Fantasy, which was not a fast race, would be a surprise. |
| by Midshipman | 1st by a nose, 82 | ||
| Patrona Margarita | 50-1 | Ashland, 4/7 | MW: Badly beaten by Monomoy Girl in her two starts this year, see no reason for a different outcome. |
| by Special Rate | 3rd by 13, 74 |
:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis
