Watchmaker: Found presents dilemma for Eclipse voters

A few more thoughts about last week’s Breeders’ Cup at beautiful Keeneland:

** It was wild the way the female turf championship seemed to change hands so quickly last Saturday. First, Stephanie’s Kitten staked a strong claim to the title by winning the Filly and Mare Turf over the high-class (and unlucky) Legatissimo. That was Stephanie’s Kitten’s second straight Grade 1 victory this fall, coming right on the heels of her win in the Flower Bowl.

Then, only two races later, Tepin seemed to snatch this divisional Eclipse Award away from Stephanie’s Kitten with her emphatic score in the Mile. The Mile was not only Tepin’s third Grade 1 victory of the year – she earlier landed the Just a Game and First Lady – it also was at the expense of males. That is certainly and rightfully a major consideration when it comes to matters of female championships.

And then, just two races after the Mile, Found won the Turf, also beating males and perhaps wresting this divisional title away from Tepin.

Perhaps.

For some, the fact that Found made only one start here in the U.S. apparently is a major strike against her this year. There is very, very recent precedent for horses with just one U.S. start to take this divisional championship (Goldikova; Dank). The difference this year is there are other title contenders with compelling bodies of work (Tepin and to a lesser degree Stephanie’s Kitten).

Right here, let me say that I’m not lobbying for anyone in this category. Truth be told, I’m still debating who I’m going to vote for here (not Pedro!). However, I do think that body of work or not, Found should be and is a very serious contender for this Eclipse Award for the simple fact that when she won the Turf, she beat Golden Horn. Golden Horn this year won the Arc de Triomphe, Irish Champion, Eclipse, and Epsom Derby. Tepin might have trounced males in the Mile, but none was close to being in the same league as Golden Horn. And Stephanie’s Kitten never beat a horse in the same hemisphere as Golden Horn.

Moreover, while Tepin’s three U.S. Grade 1 victories this year to Found’s one merits the utmost consideration and respect, championships involve more than merely tallying up the number of Grade 1 wins. If that were all there was to the Eclipse Awards, then Palace would have been champion male sprinter last year. And he wasn’t even a finalist.

** Found also presents a dilemma in the 3-year-old filly division because of having just one U.S. start and also because this division historically has been the property of dirt performers. Stellar Wind and I’m a Chatterbox probably are the leading traditional contenders for this Eclipse Award, but they are imperfect candidates. The fact that Found won the Turf as a 3-year-old filly and did so over the likes of Golden Horn – it goes without saying that no other 3-year-old filly this year defeated a rival anywhere near that caliber – almost demands her unconventional profile be respected in this division this year.

** If I keep on knocking Nyquist, I might eventually make him the second ever undefeated Triple Crown winner. But in all seriousness, there is a lot of hand wringing over the group of 2-year-old males we saw in the Juvenile and for good reason. While a few still might pop up eventually to be good horses – I think Brody’s Cause, for one, still can be an important player down the road – this Juvenile group as a whole is slow and uninspiring.

Outside of the Breeders’ Cup, we already have seen a few 2-year-old males who have run reasonably fast at a distance of ground. Maiden winners Mor Spirit, Matt King Coal, Gift Box, and Nashua winner Mohaymen are all very intriguing prospects.

But I can envision a scenario playing out where in January or early February, a new 3-year-old debuts at Gulfstream or Santa Anita and is so impressive that the 2-year-old foundation rule for Kentucky Derby winners winds up getting tested like it never has before. No horse has won the Derby without having raced at 2 since 1882. That is pretty much the last Derby rule not to have fallen. It will fall eventually, and I suspect sooner rather than later.

** It has been widely noted that Mongolian Saturday and Wavell Avenue were the only double-digit odds winners in the 13 Breeders’ Cup races this year, an unusually low number. In addition to speaking to how this was a formful Breeders’ Cup, I think this also indicates a lack of quality depth in many divisions.

To illustrate this, consider some of the margins we saw in five of the seven Breeders’ Cup dirt races (margins in turf races are naturally compressed, so even Breeders’ Cup turf races are not a good means to make this point):

The first three margins in the Dirt Mile – 2 1/2, 3 1/4, and 3 1/4 lengths.

The margin between the second and third finishers in the Distaff – 3 1/2 lengths.

The first three margins in the Juvenile Fillies – 5 3/4, 1 1/4, and 2 3/4 lengths.

The margin between the second and third finishers in the Juvenile – 2 1/4 lengths.

The first three margins in the Classic – 6 1/2, 4 1/2, and 1 1/2 lengths.