Watchmaker: Europeans about to step forward with BC races

It has been noted frequently in this space over the last few months, but it seems like every week offers us new reason to revisit the topic: Given the weakness of our male turf division, which currently finds Glorious Empire, a recent claimer – if a razor-sharp recent claimer – as the arguable leader, it’s scary to contemplate what a European shipper of some real quality might accomplish when he or she arrives here to compete come Breeders’ Cup time.

But first, it’s actually quite surprising that some European stables haven’t already attempted to capitalize on this situation. We’ve had several highly rated and very lucrative races on the turf here over the last couple months, and European participation has been minimal, at best. And the European shippers we have seen have, frankly, looked like third and fourth stringers.

Of our big, second-half-of-the-season turf stakes open to older males, the $1 million Arlington Million attracted the most European participation with three such shippers. But none was especially highly regarded. Century Dream and Deauville went off at 8-1 each, and Circus Couture went off at 74-1. They finished third under the wire, sixth and eighth, respectively.

The $1 million Sword Dancer did not lure a single European participant, while the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic attracted only one. That was Teodoro, winner of a seven-horse Group 3 race at Haydock who went off at 9-1 and finished fifth.

The Arlington Million, Sword Dancer, and Joe Hirsch were likely our three biggest races leading into the Breeders’ Cup for distance turf horses, but the story has been virtually the same for our older turf milers.

The $800,000 Woodbine Mile attracted only two European shippers – Stormy Antarctic, a Group 2 winner in Germany, and Lord Glitters, who did have some credentials being a Group 3 winner and Group 1 placed in England. Stormy Antarctic finished third at 15-1 while Lord Glitters, who went off the 3-1 third choice, finished sixth after being severely compromised by a slow pace.

However, the Shadwell Turf Mile and the City of Hope Turf Mile, perhaps our other two main preps for the Breeders’ Cup Mile, failed to attract a single European shipper between them.

All of this led into Saturday’s Grade 1, $800,000 Canadian International, which saw three of the 11 starters invade from Europe. And the two best of those three European shippers – Desert Encounter and Thundering Blue – absolutely dominated, proving European shippers didn’t necessarily have to be of any real account to make off with one of our big, pre-Breeders’ Cup turf prizes.

:: Breeders' Cup PPs: Choose from three plans, packages include PPs, strategies & more

Desert Encounter, who ran down Thundering Blue late to score by one length at 8-1, finished a close third of seven in a Group 3 at Newbury in his last start. But his three attempts at the Group 1 level this year found him finish sixth of seven, beaten over 21 lengths; last of seven, beaten 31 1/2 lengths; and ninth of 10, beaten 9 1/2 lengths.

Thundering Blue finished 4 1/2 lengths clear for the place as the Canadian International’s 3-1 favorite. He had shown dramatic improvement of late, winning a seven-horse Group 2 at York and a Group 3 in Stockholm, with a soundly beaten third in a Group 1 at 50-1 sandwiched between. But before that, Thundering Blue had been an inveterate member of England’s handicap ranks, which is not as complimentary as it would be if said for a U. S. horse.

As you would expect, the water is about to get drastically deeper in our turf male division with the Breeders’ Cup Turf and Breeders’ Cup Mile. European representation, which has been only token in our big turf races this year in terms of both numbers and quality, is about to get very serious.

Daily Racing Form’s latest top contenders lists for each Breeders’ Cup race finds the European candidates for the Turf and the Mile – the two races that directly apply to the turf male division – completely overshadowing the home team.

Enable, the tremendous filly who has won the last two Prix de l’Arc de Triomphes, is the 7-5 favorite for the Turf in DRF’s future line. She is followed by Roaring Lion, winner of three straight Group 1s, at 5-1. Waldgeist, a Group 1 winner this year, is next at 8-1, with Crystal Ocean, a solid Group 2 horse who is very close to Group 1 level, at 12-1.

The highest rated U.S. horses in the Turf, also at 12-1 each, are Channel Maker, winner of the Joe Hirsch after finishing second to Glorious Empire in the Sword Dancer, and Robert Bruce, winner of the Arlington Million, but a soundly beaten second behind Channel Maker in the Joe Hirsch.

Right here, let me disclose that yours truly sets DRF’s future odds for the Saturday Breeders’ Cup races. And for races such as the Turf and Mile, where there will be significant European participation, I strongly consider prices offered by British bookmakers. It should be noted that with the British books, Enable is currently odds-on everywhere you look, and Channel Maker is the lowest-priced active U.S.-based horse, and he is double-digit odds across the board.

Betting markets say the Mile is a much more wide-open race, but the European domination, at least in terms of expectancy, is no less overwhelming. Five of the top six on DRF’s future line for the Mile are European horses. Recoletos, winner of a Group 1 at Longchamp most recently, is the tepid DRF favorite at 9-2, followed by the Group 1-placed Expert Eye at 5-1.

Laurens, winner of two straight Group 1s, and Polydream, winner of a Group 1 two starts back, are both 6-1, with Lightning Spear, who beat Expert Eye in a Group 1 two starts back, at 10-1.

The only U.S.-based horse crashing this party is Oscar Performance. He rebounded from being eased late in the Arlington Million to go wire to wire in the slow-paced Woodbine Mile, and is 6-1 on the line I make for DRF.

The British bookmakers also have the Mile as an open betting race, but it is worth noting that Polydream appears to have emerged as something of a hot horse in recent days, currently being quoted as the favorite at prices ranging from 3-1 to 5-1.

This might be something worth remembering because, while Polydream did have trouble when seventh as the favorite in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret last time out going seven furlongs, her group stakes wins two and three starts back were at distances of 6 1/2 and seven furlongs.

On paper, Polydream doesn’t seem to quite match up with established milers such as Recoletos and Laurens, making the enthusiastic overseas support for her intriguing.