Watchmaker: Diversify's win in Whitney defines conclusive

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – You can say the powerful storm that hit right before the originally scheduled post time for Saturday’s Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga changed almost everything.

It certainly changed the racing surface. The storm turned it from a fast track that appeared to be somewhat dead near the inside, and thus favoring outside closers since speed horses naturally gravitate toward the rail, to a sloppy sealed track that who knows how it played, but which some horses might well not have been able to handle.

But one thing that you cannot say about Diversify’s front-running victory in the Whitney is that it was in any way inconclusive due to the track. Because no matter the nature of the sloppy sealed track he ran on, Diversify’s victory in the Whitney was the antithesis of inconclusive.

In a virtual carbon copy of his tremendous victory in last month’s Suburban at Belmont, Diversify went right to the front Saturday, laid down a fast pace with fractions of 23.22 seconds, 46.50, and 1:10.70, and kept on going to win as much the best.

I mean, think about it. Dalmore, Tapwrit, and Backyard Heaven were closest to Diversify early. Dalmore finished eighth and last, beaten 45 3/4 lengths. Tapwrit, winner of the 2017 Belmont Stakes, finished fourth, beaten 10 1/4 lengths. And the highly regarded Backyard Heaven finished seventh, beaten 28 1/4 lengths.

In other words, Diversify not only dispensed with the pace pressure he received from that trio, he also beat them back to oblivion, and still went on to win by 3 1/2 lengths. That means the only thing remotely inconclusive about Diversify’s Whitney was his win margin, because it badly undersells just how good he really was.

Now, you have to take a hard look at Diversify’s place in the older dirt male division, and his prospects going forward vis a vis the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Let’s take a look at my rankings for this division in the latest Watchmaker Watch at this writing:

1 – Gun Runner: He’s still number 1 even though he retired after winning the Pegasus all the way back in January because I don’t think anyone in this group has, even all this time later, run a race as good as that one. But he’s retired.

2 – West Coast: Last year’s champion 3-year-old male is just getting back in training, but it is up in the air right now if he can make the Breeders’ Cup.

3 – Accelerate: He’s had a big year winning the Big Cap and the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. He takes his game on the road to Del Mar, but can he take his game on the road to Churchill Downs, site of this year’s Breeders’ Cup?

4 – City of Light: He’s targeting the Forego, so he’s returning to sprints at least for the time being.

5 – Bee Jersey: The Met Mile winner is just that, a miler.

6 – Mind Your Biscuits: He tried hard finishing second to Diversify in the Whitney, but he did not stay the nine furlongs and is a one-turn horse.

7 – Pavel: He won the Foster, but he could be a cut below.

8 – Diversify.

9 – Catalina Cruiser: He’s 3 for 3 and interesting, but he had an easy lead over a weak group when he romped in the San Diego Handicap.

10 – Backyard Heaven: After two straight poor performances in the Foster and Whitney, his big Alysheba win is looking like an aberration.

With the 3-year-old male division being shaky, too, after the retirement of Triple Crown winner Justify – Hofburg and the comebacking McKinzie are intriguing, but heir apparent Good Magic needs to get considerably faster after failing to earn even a single triple-digit Beyer Figure in his five starts so far this year – my thinking is, why can’t Diversify be a major player going forward in this year’s older dirt male division/Breeders’ Cup Classic picture?

Why not, indeed.

Notes:
** There was a time last year when Separationofpowers was considered (by me, at least) to be one of, if not the, best 2-year-old filly in the country. Her debut here at Saratoga was positively sensational. She lost some status when she was beaten at 3-5 in the Spinaway after engaging in an insane early speed duel, but gained a good part of it back when she dominated the Frizette, and then was faced with a near insurmountable task when she drew post 13 of 13 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Even if the outside was the place to be on the main track at Del Mar during Breeders’ Cup weekend – and it was – overcoming a post like that was simply too much to ask, and Separationofpowers did well just to finish fourth.

Well, there is no thought this year about Separationofpowers being best in class because Monomoy Girl and her four straight Grade 1 victories is about 98 percent on her way to the 3-year-old filly title, with only Wonder Gadot’s impeding venture against males (again, after beating the Canadian-bred kind in the Queen’s Plate and Prince of Wales) in the Travers here in three weeks creating that tiny sliver of doubt.

That said, Separationofpowers is still a very good filly, and maybe, after her determined victory over a game-as-can-be Mia Mischief in Saratoga’s Grade 1 Test Stakes on Saturday in only her second start of the year, there could be a different path for her to Eclipse Award contention this season.

Although trainer Chad Brown said immediately after the Test that he would love to stretch Separationofpowers back out, given that her Frizette was at a one-turn mile and the Test was at seven furlongs, one would think a race like the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, and by extension a challenge for the female sprint championship, could be a very viable approach for her.

**Steeplechase races aside, I can’t remember stakes races ever being postponed without a card being cancelled, either partially or in its entirety, the way Saratoga’s Waya and Lure Stakes were Saturday. But I thought it was an inspired decision that was fair to all parties involved.

In light of the heavy rain Saratoga Springs saw overnight, track management decided that, with 26 racing days still left to go in the meet after Saturday, it made no sense tearing up the turf courses here at this point beyond the risk they were taking by keeping Saturday’s De La Rose on the inner course. This is entirely understandable.

Of course, an alternative would have been to take the Lure and Waya off the turf, which would have been unfair to the horsemen involved, potentially costing them an invaluable Saratoga stakes opportunity. This would have also been unfair to the horseplayer, because such a surface switch would have initiated untold numbers of scratches from these races, resulting in an unappealing product.

As it turned out, evidence of how deep the turf here was Saturday was found in the final time of the one race that remained on the grass, the De La Rose Stakes.

Uni edged Precieuse in the De La Rose (both are trained by Chad Brown, of course). Both are legitimately high-quality fillies, but the De La Rose’s final time of 1:40.09 for one mile over the soft inner turf course was a gaping 6.84 seconds slower than the 4-year-old course record.