Watchmaker: California Chrome will sweep Triple Crown

Immediately after he won the Preakness, I wondered if California Chrome would be able to produce yet another top effort in the Belmont Stakes. California Chrome seemed to have a more demanding race at Pimlico than he did when he won the Kentucky Derby. He was asked to move earlier than he might have preferred when Social Inclusion forced his hand early on the far turn, his patented brush at the top of the stretch didn’t seem quite as sharp as it did at Churchill Downs or in the Santa Anita Derby, and he had to work to turn back Ride On Curlin.

But by all accounts, California Chrome has done very well since the Preakness, and I’m going to stick with him to complete the sweep of the Triple Crown.

Of course, the 12-furlong distance is the big question Saturday – for everyone, not only California Chrome. But thanks to his running style, I suspect California Chrome is suited to negotiate the journey better than most. California Chrome rates very kindly, and if he can switch off to the top of the stretch like he did in the Kentucky Derby, then he will have enough in reserve to break this race open in upper stretch.

Wicked Strong, like others, had a tough trip in the Kentucky Derby, so his fourth-place finish was a creditable effort. Wicked Strong was good in winning the Wood Memorial two starts back, and the interesting thing about both performances was that he really wasn’t all that far off the early pace. I expect him to be reasonably well placed early and to finish well with a cleaner trip.

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Medal Count’s eighth in the Derby was better than it looks on paper, as he had trouble passing the stands the first time and again in the stretch run. Notably, Medal Count’s Derby try showed that his improved form in his prior two starts was not entirely due to a fondness for Polytrack, and he seems the type who will stay the distance.

After the ridiculous trip he was given in the Derby, Ride On Curlin was a fine second in the Preakness, by far the best performance of his career. He’s a threat, but the contention in this race runs much deeper than it did in Baltimore.

Tonalist will have plenty of support on the basis of his Peter Pan Stakes victory and his potential. However, he has yet to beat horses of this quality and will be an underlay relative to his actual chances of winning.

Commanding Curve came from way out of it to be a game second in the Derby. But because that effort was so much better than anything he had shown before, I need to see him do it again.