Watchmaker: California Chrome a no-nonsense pick

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, every handicapper aspires to be the smartest guy in the room, and wants to pick the double-digit pari-mutuel winner no one else lands on. But for me, this Derby is a little different. My instincts tell me it’s best to not make handicapping this Derby any more difficult than it needs to be, and I’m going with California Chrome .

By any measure, California Chrome’s romps in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby in his last two starts were the best pair of performances any member of this Derby field has ever put together. Despite not being asked for his best in either outing, California Chrome won both races by big margins, and earned the two highest Beyer Figures in this field. What’s more impressive is California Chrome has proven to be equally effective racing either on the lead or from a little off the pace, and that versatility puts him in line for a relatively clean trip Saturday. The only “problem” with him is he is the favorite, but odds in the neighborhood of 3-1 might actually represent value for a horse with the sort of edge California Chrome has on paper.

Wicked Strong was not himself at Gulfstream in his first two starts this year, but he broke through with an impressive, going-away score in Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial last time out. Wicked Strong will get a favorable pace set up for his closing kick, and is thought to be the main danger.

Hoppertunity , who showed toughness when he won a roughly run Rebel two starts back, was merely prepping when second to the pick in the Santa Anita Derby as he was already safely in the Derby field on points. Hoppertunity can be a more formidable opponent this time. Keep in mind, however, there was still a big gap between California Chrome and him at Santa Anita, and California Chrome wasn’t being asked for his best, either.

Candy Boy was a distant third in the Santa Anita Derby, but that was off a designed two-month layoff. He is eligible to improve second start back, and can be in the mix at a price.

Medal Count’s true ability on dirt remains unclear, but he has come to hand of late, and has a closing style that might enable him to pick up some pieces late.

Danza was a huge surprise when he won the Arkansas Derby. But while he can contend if he duplicates that effort, he also had an unobstructed rail trip that day, and can’t expect to be so fortunate this time.

Intense Holiday has earned raves for the way he’s trained coming into this, but he will have to be much improved. He has not run a race yet that says he can win.