Watchmaker: California Chrome has work cut out from post 12 in Pegasus World Cup

You can try all you want, but you’re going to have a very difficult time making chicken salad out of the chicken whatever that was Horse of the Year California Chrome’s draw of the 12 post in Saturday’s $12 million Pegasus World Cup going – quite notably – 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream Park.

It was well known well before the Pegasus was born that there is a very short run to the first turn in 1 1/8-mile races at Gulfstream, putting outside post positions at a severe disadvantage. How much of a disadvantage? Consider the following:

* Since the rebuilt Gulfstream opened in 2006, posts 9 through 14 in 1 1/8-mile races there have a combined 10 wins from 223 starts, for a paltry 4.5 win percentage. The only other post with a single-digit win percentage at this distance is, not surprisingly, post 8, which has an 8 percent success rate. For purposes of comparison, 16 percent of starters from post 1 and 18 percent of starters from post 3 have won going nine furlongs at Gulfstream.

* Recent results show that these figures have remained consistent. Since the opening of the prime winter meet on Dec. 1, 2012, posts 9 through 14 are a combined 2 for 50 in 1 1/8-mile races at Gulfstream for a win rate of 4 percent. Posts 1 and 3 over this period had respective win rates of 15 and 19 percent.

* In two-turn main-track races at the current Gulfstream meet, posts 8 through 14 are a combined 0 for 25.

* Specific to post 12 going 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream, the only horse to win from that slot since at least the beginning of 2006 was Big Brown in the 2008 Florida Derby.

These are some daunting numbers, and California Chrome, the 6-5 morning line favorite, must do some serious work early in the Pegasus if he is to avoid losing an amount of ground on the first turn that even he might not be able to overcome.

Some have opined that California Chrome is quicker than everyone to his inside until you get to Noble Bird, who breaks from post 4. But I’m not so sure. Stretch-out horses like War Envoy and Semper Fortis could contribute to hanging California Chrome very wide on the first turn.

Arrogate, who beat California Chrome in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and who is the second choice on the morning line at 7-5, drew the rail. That is obviously a world’s better post than California Chrome drew, yet it might be a tricky one for him. I’m not sure Arrogate has as much pure early speed as some think, and I feel he might have to be sent if he is to avoid getting shuffled back into the first turn.