Watchmaker: Breeders' Cup Saturday late pick four

The Breeders’ Cup late pick four sequence Saturday that ends with the Classic might be the marquee 50-cent multirace exotics offering of the weekend. But in reality, this sequence is potentially one of the least-interesting pick-whatever sequences on Friday and Saturday at Keeneland. And that is because two of the four heaviest favorites in the 13 Breeders’ Cup events – Golden Horn and American Pharoah – are in Saturday’s late pick four sequence.

Now, you might have a contrarian view when it comes to one or both of those favorites. And if you do, then this late pick four becomes a real opportunity. But I don’t. I think both are going to win, and I’ll lean heavily on both. That said, I wouldn’t stand alone with either of them, mainly in an attempt to make something exciting happen.

Anyway, here are my race-by-race thoughts on the pick four.

Race 8, Mile

I picked European shippers one, two, three, and four here because I think they just have to be better – probably significantly better – than an uninspiring group of American turf milers. Make Believe, Time Test, Esoterique, and Karakontie were my selections in that order and are my “A” horses in this leg.

My backups are Impassible, the other European; Tourist, whose change-of-style, closing third in the Shadwell Turf Mile makes him the only one I want out of that race; and Mshawish, who got hot early this year in Florida, whose third in the Dubai Turf was good, and who is reportedly training up a storm.

Race 9, Juvenile

Brody’s Cause, Unbridled Outlaw, Greenpointcrusader, and Exaggerator were my selections here in that order, and they are all main horses for me. However, if I wanted to pare down my play or make a wise-guy parallel play, I would lean on Brody’s Cause, who won the Breeders’ Futurity at the distance and over the track and who I believe is only going to improve with racing.

Two I’m throwing in as backups are Cocked and Loaded and Conquest Big E. Cocked and Loaded won the Iroquois Stakes at this distance around two turns, and though he might have been fortunate that third-place finisher Unbridled Outlaw ran into a mountain of trouble in that race, I won’t let this horse punish me for underselling him. Conquest Big E finished second to Brody’s Cause in his debut and subsequently beat maidens at the distance and over the track, albeit in modest time.

Race 10, Turf

Golden Horn won almost every big race in Europe this year, including the Arc from a bad post position. If he is 100 percent, he’ll make mincemeat of this field. I know about concerns about the Arc-BC Turf double, and I can see where someone who thinks Golden Horn is making one start too many is coming from. But I think America’s distance turf horses are every bit as uninspiring this year as our turf milers – remember how Euro shipper Flintshire made a show of the Sword Dancer? – and I think Golden Horn can win if he’s only at 75 percent efficiency. He’s my lone “A” here.

I will use two backups just in case something goofy happens, and they are Found and The Pizza Man. Found is the only other European representative in this race, and while she’s no match for Golden Horn, she’s a good horse. The Pizza Man showed that he handles the Keeneland turf course when he just missed in the Shadwell Turf Mile, and he’ll be much more at home at this longer trip.

Race 11, Classic

Sure, this will be the toughest assignment of American Pharoah’s career. But he has trained without distraction and with great purpose since his loss in the Travers, and I believe he is poised for a massive rebound. Moreover, unless someone else sacrifices whatever chance they have and goes early, American Pharoah is in complete command of the pace. He’s a main horse for me, as is Gleneagles, whom I picked second.

Gleneagles was given a total prep for this just two weeks ago, when he ran in a race he would have otherwise scratched from because it was on ground he is known to dislike. His connections, among the world’s best, targeted the Classic early on, and in a Classic where I have knocks on every other contender, I think he’s dangerous.

Tonalist, Keen Ice, Frosted, Honor Code, and Beholder are only backups for me. Tonalist isn’t a stiff away from Belmont Park, but he’s not the horse he is when he’s there. Keen Ice got a great setup in the Travers, the likes of which he may not see this time. Frosted is a very nice horse, but he’s not as good as American Pharoah. I didn’t like Honor Code’s dull prep in the Kelso, and even if he rebounds, this will be his first start at 1 1/4 miles. Beholder is a tremendous mare, but whether she can take her “A” game on the road is a very big question.

Here’s the play, in main/backup format:
Race 8: 3,9,11,12/5,6,10
Race 9: 3,4,7,9/1,5
Race 10: 1/9,10
Race 11: 4,5/1,2,3,9,10

After punching the all-main ticket twice, the total for the play is $124.