Watchmaker: Belmont Stakes analysis

This will be AMERICAN PHAROAH’s fourth race in only eight weeks, and that’s a real concern. So, too, is knowing that every Triple Crown winner started at least twice previously at Belmont Park, while Saturday will mark his first race over this unique track. And though I have zero business telling his Hall of Fame trainer where his horses should train, I wish he came straight to Belmont after winning the Preakness to prepare for his Triple Crown attempt, as he did when he went straight to Churchill Downs after winning the Arkansas Derby to ready for his successful Kentucky Derby run.

Going into the Preakness, I expected American Pharoah to win. I also expected to take a very strong position against him in the Belmont Stakes. Then American Pharoah won the Preakness, and a funny thing happened. While many others downgraded American Pharoah’s Preakness score on the basis of his principal competition not handling the slop, I thought it was the best race American Pharoah ever ran. And I’m picking him to complete a sweep of the Triple Crown.

Why was I so taken with American Pharoah’s Preakness? For the first time, he won without getting a perfect trip. The deluge that hit before the Preakness turned the track deep and tiring, and the pace American Pharoah set under pressure was, I believe, very fast and demanding for the conditions. But instead of showing the effects of his early efforts, American Pharoah crushed everyone in against him, running through the wire like a fresh horse.

By all accounts, American Pharoah has thrived since the Preakness. I still wish he had more experience with the Belmont track, but that concern is mitigated by a very favorable pace scenario. Even for the distance, the fractions should be deliberate to slow, and American Pharoah will be right on that easy pace.

The pace scenario also favors MATERIALITY. I loved Materiality’s effort to finish sixth in the Kentucky Derby after a slow start found him much farther off the pace than he is accustomed. He should be a forward factor this time, as he was when he won the Florida Derby with what still is the highest 3-year-old Beyer Speed Figure of the year, and he easily could complete a two-speed number.

MADEFROMLUCKY was no match for the pick at Oaklawn. But he has something the top two don’t have – a win over the track in the Peter Pan Stakes, in which he improved with blinkers off. He won’t be far back early and can get a piece at a decent price.

FROSTED’s fourth in the Derby was terrific, but his new, deep-closing style is a poor fit for the anticipated slow pace scenario.