Watchmaker: Belmont pick three play for Saturday, Oct. 11

With a weather forecast calling for as much as an inch of rain around New York City by noon on Saturday, and with a Saturday card at Belmont Park that has six of the 10 races scheduled for turf, it’s easy to see how offering a multi-race exotic play much in advance can be problematic. Even only 24 hours out, it’s anyone’s guess how many races will stay on turf Saturday, if any.

In view of this uncertainty, it’s best for the purposes of this feature to focus on what possibilities consecutive dirt races at Belmont might present. The first three races are on dirt, so there’s the play: the early pick three starting in the opener.

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Race 1 – I’m against morning-line favorite It’s Easy. It’s Easy did finish third in an identical maiden claimer in the mud in her recent return from a four-month absence. But while conventional handicapping might say she will improve second time back, I don’t think that’s the case in this specific instance. It’s Easy was bet in her return (she was hammered down to 6-5) like she was going to fire her absolute best shot right off the bench. Instead, she delivered her usual soundly beaten third-place finish, earning her customary low 40s Beyer Figure. I don’t think It’s Easy is going to get any better. She is what she is. If she does improve and wins, then I lose.

My main push here is Peach Lake. Normally, I don’t feature maidens who have had 14 chances like Peach Lake has. But her gaining second last time out, 5 1/2 lengths ahead of It’s Easy, was her best performance yet, and there is very little else in here for her to beat.

My two backups are Lady Seeker and Hot On Ice. Lady Seeker was eased in an off-the-turf route in the mud at Saratoga two starts back, but at least she raced forwardly for almost six furlongs, the distance she goes Saturday. Hot On Ice has made a habit of quitting so far in her career. But here, even with blinkers off, she might establish a clear early lead for the first time, and that might make her brave.

Race 2 – There are some nice hard hitters in this race, and my two main horses are Bowman’s Beast and Non Stop.

Bowman’s Beast was fourth after setting the pace last time out in a tough starter allowance route on the Pennsylvania Derby undercard. I like his cut-back in distance to seven furlongs, and he should be the controlling speed again. Non Stop steps up off the claim after crushing a weaker group most recently. That was his best effort since earlier this year, and he has enough recent back class to suggest he can stand the class hike.

The two others I will use in lesser strength are Divine Child and Dyker Beach. Divine Child makes his first start in three months, but his two best performances this year came when he was fresh, and he fits on those efforts. With a record of 21 starts, 2 wins, 10 seconds, and 1 third, Dyker Beach is most definitely not my kind of horse. However, Dyker Beach does have a way of running up (or down) to the competition, he loves an off track, he ran well just last Saturday, and could find getting blinkers back on to be beneficial.

Race 3 – On paper, this looks like strictly a two-horse race between Okey Dokey Smokey and Master Yank. But for me, it’s only Okey Dokey Smokey. Master Yank turned a perfect trip into a maiden romp two starts back, but at Finger Lakes. I want to see him do that at a New York Racing Association track.

Okey Dokey Smokey, on the other hand, won at Saratoga last time out. And while he prevailed over only New York-bred maiden claimers, he actually ran well. Okey Dokey Smokey battled for the early lead with an opponent who wound up finishing sixth and last, beaten almost 25 lengths, and then gamely turned back another opponent who came back to win his next start decisively at Belmont. With a fair start, Okey Dokey Smokey is as loose on the lead as he wants to be in this spot.

Here’s the play: