Watchmaker: Belmont pick four for Saturday, June 27
The late pick four Saturday at Belmont is an appealing sequence with real potential for a good payoff. And while three or these four races are scheduled for turf, local weather forecasters are saying as of midday Friday that the heavy rain might not hit the area until Saturday night, which is good news. I’m playing this pick four, and here are my thoughts on it.
Race 7
This conditioned claimer on the Widener turf course is tricky, and I’m using three “A” horses and three “C’s.” I decided to go strongest with Funky Munky Fever, Race and Shine, and Daisy a Day. All three are taking well-meant class drops out of allowance races, and all three have races in their not-so-distant past that would be good enough to win here.
My backups are Queenofzeenile, Life’s a Stage, and Gimme Jimmy. Queenofzeenile is also dropping back down out of allowance races, but I’m not sure she’s as good as my “A’s.” Life’s a Stage’s form is competitive, but I’d like her more if this wasn’t her first start since November. Gimme Jimmy is an inclusion out of respect for the connections and because of the addition of blinkers.
Race 8
Request and Go Around are my two main horses in this extended-distance allowance race on the inner turf course. I have my doubts as to how good Request really is, but he had some traffic trouble when fourth in his recent seasonal debut, is perfectly eligible to improve, and doesn’t meet that tough a bunch. Go Around did set and/or contest a slow pace in his recent maiden victory, but he came home fast, he could be on another soft pace this time, and he can certainly take another step forward in only his third career start.
Sly Tom and Make a Decision are my two backups. Sly Tom will have to do even better than his improved second at Parx most recently, but he might really like the added distance. Make a Decision is a hard hitter and is good enough to win. The trouble is that he hasn’t actually won since October 2013.
Race 9, the Mother Goose
Danessa Deluxe was a selection in my Weekend Warrior column this week off a silly trip in the Black-Eyed Susan, in which she was taken back and then shuffled back off a very slow pace that she should have been a part of. Danessa Deluxe showed big improvement two starts back off the trainer switch when third in the Gulfstream Park Oaks and is a main for me. But I’m also using Eskenformoney as an “A.” I’m just throwing out her outing last time in the Kentucky Oaks, where she was an absurd last of 14 early. Eskenformoney was second in the Gulfstream Oaks two back, and I maintain that she would have won had she not been allowed to drop down to the profoundly dead rail when she took over into the stretch.
My two backups are Wonder Gal and Munasara. Wonder Gal is obvious off thirds in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and Acorn in two of her last three starts, but do note that she was one of the few in the Acorn who did not have early trouble. Munasara was most impressive visually in winning over the track most recently to make it 2 for 2 in her career. She is decidedly light in terms of Beyer Speed Figures, but being so lightly raced, she could easily take a big step forward in that department.
Race 10
I wouldn’t blame anyone if they leaned heavily here on Security Risk. His third after setting the pace at Keeneland most recently (he was subsequently moved up to second on a disqualification) looks strong in this spot, and he might just simply be best. But I’m going to use a handful of others here in the hopes of making something interesting happen.
Asbaad and Reverend Green are my other “A” horses, along with Security Risk. Asbaad stopped in his debut after contesting the pace, but the pace he contested was strong, and he might improve dramatically with a more prudent ride. Reverend Green ships in for sharp connections from Delaware, where he was disqualified from a win last time out, and is a son of Elusive Quality trying turf for the first time.
Britannia’s Moat, Malibu Preacher, and Shinobi are my three backups. Britannia’s Moat suitably cuts back in distance, and his fifth two back was okay. Malibu Preacher might show marked improvement switching to turf, while Shinobi, only a mediocre sixth in his first start, merits a chance to improve second time out.
Here’s my play in main/backup format:
Race 7: 5,6,9/2,7,11
Race 8: 1,4/3,5
Race 9: 8.9/4,10
Race 10: 1,7,12/4,5,9