Watchmaker: Belmont pick four play for Saturday, June 20
The early pick four Saturday at Belmont beginning in race 2 is, to me, a good-looking sequence. Let’s go after it.
But first, some might wonder if I like the early pick four, why not go after the pick 5, which begins in race 1 and which often pays exponentially higher than one might expect for one additional race? That’s an excellent point, and normally, I would opt for the pick five. But Saturday’s first race is very tricky and potentially fraught with danger. I’d have to go deeper than I want for an eight-horse field and use horses I really don’t like. So early pick four it is.
Race 2
The first two horses you see in the past performances here – Bella Joy and Sister Superior – will be on a ton of pick four tickets. Bella Joy was beaten less than four lengths and only two lengths against straight maidens on the turf in her last two starts at Churchill, and now she drops in with New York-bred company for the first time in her life. Bella Joy can win, but frankly, I think she ran only decently in her last two starts, and I’m relegating her to a backup.
Same with Sister Superior. She finished second in an identical spot in her debut last month and might not have to improve much to get the job done Saturday. But Sister Superior hails from a Tom Bush barn that’s been really struggling this year, and she’ll be a fraction of the 18-1 she was first time out.
My three “A” horses here are Style Drift, Corner Three, and Spa Duchess. Style Drift and Corner Three are Chad Brown-trained first-time starters with the Ortiz brothers getting the calls, and I suspect it’s likely one has ability, if not both. Spa Duchess was not good last time cutting back to a sprint and with blinkers on. Now, she stretches back out to a route and loses the blinkers, and she showed enough under those conditions when fourth in her debut two starts back to be used.
Race 3
There are two old class horses coming back off extended layoffs in this spot in Charming Kitten and Al Khali, but I’m only using one of them, as a backup, and that’s Al Khali. Al Khali hasn’t raced since Saratoga 2013, but he has Bill Mott in his corner, and he was once a Grade 1-type horse. Charming Kitten, who has been away almost a year, has Todd Pletcher on his side. But even if he were at his best, I’m not sure Charming Kitten would be good enough here.
Under Control and Unbridled Ocean are my two mains. Under Control developed into a legitimate stakes performer the second half of last year. He’s been away since November, but has run well fresh, and the Graham Motion barn is going well now. Unbridled Ocean, third behind a freakish score by Reload most recently, has recency on his side and will be part of what might be a very deliberate pace.
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Race 4
Mind Magic will be a very popular single in this sequence and absolutely is a must use. He made his only start against straight maidens at Gulfstream, and even if that happened after the peak of the Gulfstream winter meet was over, he faced much, much, much better than the New York-bred maiden claimers he faces Saturday. Not only that, Mind Magic ran fairly well at Gulfstream, finishing fifth, beaten just a little more than three lengths after a slow start, and was out decently after the finish.
I’m using Mind Magic as an “A,” of course. However, I am concerned that after a decent debut against open company, he’s not even getting one shot against straight New York-bred maidens and is instead being offered up for sale right away. That’s a red flag, so I’ll also use as a main the first-time starter Ten Twenty from the very sharp Joe Sharp barn. For what it’s worth, Formulator has Sharp previously having only one first-time starter going a route on turf like Ten Twenty is, and that horse won.
I almost hate doing it, but I’m throwing Vischer Ferry in as a backup. Vischer Ferry quit after briefly contesting the pace as the favorite in his recent seasonal bow and now drops in with maiden claimers for the first time. The class drop on the heels of a poor effort is a negative. However, in general, I have to respect the straight-maiden-to-maiden-claiming drop, and Vischer Ferry does have some OK back races.
Race 5
This is a pretty solid entry-level allowance event for 3-year-olds on the turf. And the complexion of this race could change mightily depending on what happens with the three who also are cross-entered in the Stanton Stakes, a trio that I would be using to one degree or another.
If Weekend Express (one of the three cross-entered in the Stanton) runs back to his dominating starter allowance win last time, everyone else here will be running for second. He’s a main on my ticket, as are both halves of the Graham Motion entry All I Karabout (also entered in the Stanton) and Johnson City Kid. Both currently are in sharp form. My third and final main is the longshot Ocean Telegraph. Rating tactics (and a loaded field) did not work for Ocean Telegraph most recently, but he beat some nice horses when he was allowed to roll early in his turf debut two back at Gulfstream, and I hope for a return to that approach Saturday.
Animal Kracker, Enjoy the Show, and Gallery are my backups. Animal Kracker is starting to get his act together and has potential, while Enjoy the Show (the other Stanton cross-entrant) can improve second start off the layoff. Gallery will be bet here off his recent company lines, and those company lines are why I’m throwing him in. But I can’t envision a trip where he might win because he doesn’t really have a defined running style.
Here’s the play, in main/backup format:
Race 2: 3,4,8/1,2
Race 3: 3,6/5
Race 4: 2,3/6
Race 5: 1&1a,4,7/5,8,9