Watchmaker: Belmont pick five play for Sunday, Sept. 7

With 10 2-year-old first-time starters in the body of the 10th and final race, many of them from live and/or clever outfits, I can’t endorse playing the late pick four Sunday at Belmont Park. With the inability to even use possible double payoffs as a means to gauge betting action, there is just too much guesswork involved in this last leg of a multi-race exotics wager for my liking. And I would imagine the same would be true of any other reasonably sane horseplayer. It’s disappointing that the New York Racing Association still seems unaware that slotting races loaded with first-time starters in spots where they are completely hidden for multi-race exotics purposes is a disservice to bettors.

So, I turned my attention to the early part of Belmont’s Sunday card. And if I were thinking about the early pick four (races 2-5), then it only makes sense to go after the pick five (races 1-5) instead. Pick fives simply pay exponentially better than pick fours, and you can get nice returns even with two or three favorites in the sequence.

One caveat here is the weather. A front is supposed to move through the New York area late Saturday or Saturday night. A little rain would be fine because Long Island could use it. But heavier rain could threaten the status of the two turf races in this pick five sequence. I’m going to approach this pick five play as though whatever precipitation the area gets, it won’t significantly affect the footing Sunday at Belmont on turf or dirt.

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Race 1 – I’m interested in two horses here as “A's,” RETTALFA and WILD KAY. Both performed reasonably well in tougher spots at Saratoga in their most recent outings, and both were decisive winners in their last starts at Belmont.

I’m not totally sure what to do with ALLIE SWEET. Allie Sweet has back races that are plenty good enough, but she’s given way in her last two starts, and she drops 50 percent in claiming price first start off the claim from a high-percentage, high-volume barn for a high-percentage, low-volume outfit. I’ll throw her in as a backup.

I’m against Golden Rule and Inaflash, who might be considered the other contenders. Golden Rule drops in class, but I don’t like how she’s been stopping lately. Inaflash has a bit of hang in her even when she’s on her game.

Race 2 – My three main horses here, in no particular order, are LOCHAN, MAGSAMELIA, and STAY IN FRONT. Lochan drops into a maiden claimer for the first time and into a soft one at that. She suitably cuts back to a sprint, and she did show speed in her turf debut last time out. Magsamelia seems to get shaky in the stretch when she hears footsteps, but she has good speed and faced better on the main track. Stay in Front’s only start wins this race, but that was 12 1/2 months ago. She returns at a reduced level, which also is cause for pause, but does so for connections I respect.

As backups, I’ll use ACROSTIC, whose first start this year under similar conditions wasn’t bad, and RUFUS RUTH, who would be an “A” if she didn’t already have too many chances and a bunch of second-place finishes.

Race 3 (Sky Beauty Stakes) – There are only five horses in this race, so I’m a little disappointed that I couldn’t narrow it down to something less than three “A” horses. But I couldn’t. MONTANA NATIVE is super logical off a win and two seconds in out-of-town stakes in her last three starts. After running two big races last fall in her last two starts at 3, TOASTING has disappointed this year. But a much-improved second most recently suggests a return to top form, and the switch back to dirt is a plus. KATIE’S GARDEN is making her stakes debut Sunday, but she was cut out to be a good one and has won three straight. Her overwhelming victory last time at Saratoga was her best effort yet. I want all of them.

Race 4 (Real Courage Stakes) – This is another race in which the field size might be moderate, but the contention runs deep. My main position here is I’m against ZA APPROVAL, who towers over this group on class lines (he was a narrowly beaten second to Wise Dan in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last fall) but whom I will relegate to backup status only. Za Approval’s form has gotten worse as this year has gone on, with his last outing being an especially empty effort. I’m not going to try to wake him up, especially at a short price.

My main uses here are FREDERICKSBURG (he also was entered in a stakes Saturday at Laurel, but after drawing a bad post there, he might opt for this), and JOE TESS. Both made their last starts in the Oceanport Stakes on the Haskell undercard, with Fredericksburg finishing a game second after setting the pace and Joe Tess checking in a tired 10th after being compromised by a bad post. Both might find going seven furlongs on the turf to be right in their wheelhouse. Beyond them, I’ll use several others as backups along with Za Approval.

Race 5 – CLARK KENT looks like he might be a layover in this race. He earned an excellent 88 Beyer Speed Figure in his first and only start earlier this year, finishing a clear second to Embellishing Bob, who came back to win the Derby Trial on the disqualification of Bayern and who recently was second in the Iowa Derby. And I take the fact that Clark Kent is shipping up from his Delaware Park base to return at Belmont as a sign of supreme stable confidence.

One of the firsters in here would have to be a real runner to beat Clark Kent, but I’ll back up with two of them. They are LORD CASHEL, a Hard Spun colt trained by Jimmy Jerkens (’nuff said), and JAZZ PLAYER, who has some good works.

Here’s the play: