Watchmaker: Belmont pick five play for Saturday, Sept. 20

At the risk of sounding like a broken record (hey, vinyl is hip these days, incredibly), the New York Racing Association made the late part of Saturday’s card at Belmont difficult by slotting 2-year-old maiden special weight races as the last two races of the 10-race program. Seven of the 11 in the ninth race are first-time starters, and five of the 10 in the body of the 10th race are firsters.

Yes, I know that Chad Brown trains one of the firsters in the 10th, and he seems to win all the long maiden juvenile races on the turf like this one. But you get the point. For late pick four purposes, not to mention pick six purposes, Saturday’s ninth and 10th are completely hidden. Since there is no way to gauge betting action in these races by looking at possible double payoffs, I can’t endorse getting involved late on this card.

That leaves the early part of the program, and specifically a pick five starting in the opener comprising races with established form. Let’s go for it.

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Race 1 – Tiz Mae West and Wraith are my main horses here. Tiz Mae West was a narrowly beaten second most recently in a race from which the first and third finishers both came back to win, and goes here first start off the David Jacobson claim. Wraith finished second in her last two in what I thought were tougher races.

I’ll back up with Bossy Saratoga and Clean Eleven. Bossy Saratoga showed improvement last time getting her maiden win first start on dirt and for a new barn. Clean Eleven hasn’t been out in 15 months, but that’s no issue for Chad Brown charges like her, and her debut win puts her in the mix.

The other two horses in this race are Little Gidding and Angel Code. They are not without chances, but I’m not using them. Little Gidding had no business losing last time out. Angel Code ships in for a Jorge Navarro barn that wins races in bunches elsewhere, but is, according to DRF’s Formulator, 0 for 10 at NYRA the last five years, and all those starters were since 2012.

Race 2 – To be honest, I don’t like anyone in this race. But I’m not going to use all seven, so I’ll take a deep breath and take two as “A” horses and two as “C" horses.

My main horses are Betweenhereandcool and Steve. Betweenhereandcool was a distant third behind a big Jacobson dropdown last time out, but is liable to show improvement Saturday as he is first off the Jacobson claim. Steve was a much closer second in the race Betweenhereandcool comes out of, and I’m going to attribute his horrendous effort last time out to a dislike of a muddy track.

My backups are Street Swag and Silver Morgan. Street Swag has a license to improve second time back off a long layoff, and won big at the distance over the track a year ago. I have strong reservations about Silver Morgan at this 1 1/16-mile distance, but he’s first start off the Mike Maker claim, and that’s reason enough to throw him in in this spot.

Race 3 – I like a price horse here: Silver Silence. I can forgive Silver Silence’s last two outings as she had a wide trip going farther than she probably wants to go last time out, and was out of her element in an off the turf race in the slop two starts back. But her effort three back, a good third against better and into a relatively slow pace, is good enough to win this.

But I will also use Stage Name in equal strength. I admit I’m concerned about Stage Name’s class drop coming back off a three-month absence, but she’s very logical off her last two performances against better.

I’ll also use Datts Da Boss and A P Johnson as higher-level backups. Datts Da Boss lacks a winning profile, but both of her Saratoga starts were good, and she’s taking a meaningful class drop. A P Johnson makes her second start back off a long layoff, and first career start for a tag.

Race 4 – Big Business and Escapefromreality are my main horses here. Big Business has been in excellent form all year, is back in with New York-breds after finishing second in the Grade 1 Forego most recently (to another New York-bred in Palace), and is 5 for 7 at Belmont. Escapefromreality was an especially fine second at this distance over this track two starts back in his return from a nine-month absence.

The Saratoga Snacks of old would be the boss of this field, but I wonder what he can do right now. Saratoga Snacks was dead on the board in his comeback race at Saratoga and did not run particularly well. I’m leaning against him, but out of respect for the horse he used to be and for trainer Bill Mott, I’ll throw him in as a backup.

Race 5 – I tend to shy away from horses dropping in class off wins, but Cheyenne Nation is an exception. Cheyenne Nation goes from a win for a $40,000 tag at Saratoga last time out into a $25,000 claimer here. He gets a favorable pace setup, has been working right along, and drops for connections whose business is winning races.

For backups, I’ll use Emkanaat, who is a little iffy at the distance, but who still has a good shot off a second last time; Tapitdar, who might be poised for a big rebound effort; Abilio, capable of winning on memory but who also just might be done dealing; and Empty Headed, a Southern California shipper who plummets in class and has “claim me” written all over him.