Watchmaker: Belmont Park pick four play for Thursday, June 4

I will not play, nor can I endorse playing, the pick five or the early pick four Thursday at Belmont Park, and that is because of the placement of race 4.

The fourth race Thursday, a straight maiden sprint, drew a field of 12, including an entry. Seven of the 12 are first-time starters, and the five who have raced aren’t particularly imposing.

You know where I’m going with this because I’ve written about it many times before. Placing such a race loaded with first-time starters this deep into multi-race exotic sequences precludes the betting public from even looking at possible double payoffs to see which firsters are taking money and, as a result, seem live. The New York Racing Association’s pick five begins in the first race, and it’s early pick four begins in the second race, so this fourth race is completely buried for the purposes of these two wagers. As I’ve stated before, this is a disservice to the segment of the betting public that patronizes these multi-race exotic wagers.

The solution for Thursday’s pick five and early pick four would have been to flip flop races 4 and 6. Race 6 is also a dirt race with a full field, and is one with established form. And slotting the firster-loaded maiden race as the sixth race would not have adversely affected the late pick four, even on Thursday’s eight race card. The late pick four Thursday starts in race 5, which would have made this maiden race the second race of the sequence, thus giving players a chance to look at the double possibles.

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It should be noted that while slotting that maiden race as the sixth instead of the fourth would have helped the pick five and the early pick four, and would not have impacted the late pick four, it would have impacted the pick six, which because of the eight-race card begins in race 3. And there is a pick six carryover into Thursday, although Thursday’s card was set and drawn before that was known. But it is still fair to question the of slotting a race loaded with first-time starters to the benefit of only one mult- race exotic wager, and to the detriment of two others.

Rant over. The late pick four it is for me Thursday. Let’s look at it race by race.

Race 5 – The key to this extended distance turf event – or anti-key, in this case – is Belisarius. Belisarius might be the best horse. He has also been the beaten favorite in all seven of his U. S. starts while showing a fair amount of hang. Belisarius might win someday. I just hope Thursday isn’t the day. He won’t be on any of my tickets in the pick four, a bet that requires your horses to win.

The pace might be contested with two pace horses breaking from the inside. I like potential closers Sheldon and Rhythm Blues. Sheldon kept good company last year at 3 and is much better than his recent seasonal bow would suggest. Rhythm Blues had a three-wide trip throughout in his first start this year, and was also compromised by a lack of pace. Under the circumstances, his fourth that day was a solid effort.

But I will also use those two inside pace horses in varying strength. Roman Approval will be a main along with Sheldon and Rhythm Blue because of his sharp form. Cordero is stepping way up, but I’ll back up with him in deference to apprentice Eric Cancel, who can do no wrong right now.

Race 6 – Drama King and Damage Control look strong in this first-level New York-bred allowance race. Drama King crushed a next-out stakes winner in his last, and has been given ample time since to avoid a regression. Damage Control’s last two were both very good for this grade. Both are pace horses, however, and in case they get into a debilitating battle early, I’ll back up with the two closers I prefer, Repent Twice, second in similar spots in two of his last three, and Rectify, who comes out of a very fast sprint and who should like the added distance he gets here.

Race 7, the Intercontinental Stakes – I was so impressed with Radiator’s win in her U. S. debut at Keeneland that I took her last time in the Beaugay despite the big class jump. And then I watched her tire late after being strangled back off a walking early pace. I wrote after that race that I would love to see Radiator cut back to a turf sprint, and voila, here she is. I like her the best here, but I’ll also use Marbre Rose as a main because she, too, suitably cuts back in distance off a sixth in the Honey Fox that was better than it looks on paper.

I’ll throw in two backups, too, in Zindaya and Shrinking Violet. Zindaya turned an easy lead into a decisive score in the License Fee most recently, and she might get loose again early here, although she is meeting better. Shrinking Violet has a right to improve off her recent return from a layoff, and her Beyer Figures command respect.

Race 8 – This is a tough maiden turf route. I’m using six, and I hope I tabbed the right three as my “A” horses: Elated, Coming Attraction, and Robe.

Elated is logical off a game second in her recent 2015 bow, although I wonder how strong a race that really was since it was won by a 66-1 shot. Coming Attraction was sharp finishing second in her first two starts, but now moves to turf off a disappointing effort. She is, however, a half to the Grade 2 turf stakes winner Parading. Robe was caught four wide on the first turn when fifth in her only start early this year, which came at Gulfstream in a race won by Strict Compliance, winner of last Saturday’s Penn Oaks. I don’t care for her post toward the outside in a 1 1/1- mile race on the inner course, but she is likely to improve.

My backups are Vouch for Kitten, caught three wide on the first turn when fourth in her debut at Churchill; Tiztalented, who came from way back to be sixth in the same race Elated comes out of; and Southern Gem, whose form is as good as anyone’s here, but whose outside post is a real disadvantage.

Here’s the play, in main/backup format:
Race 5: 1,6,11/2
Race 6: 1a,10/3,4
Race 7: 11,13/10,12
Race 8: 6,8,11/2,3,12