Watchmaker: All-stakes pick four on Kentucky Oaks Day

There are four pick fours, not to mention two pick fives, on Friday’s Kentucky Oaks card at Churchill Downs. But the pick four I’m focusing on here is the late all-stakes one that concludes with the Oaks and begins in race 8.

Race 8, Turf Sprint – There’s a big field here, and while I’m going to spread a bit, I won’t spread as much as you might expect. I’m comfortable with three “A,” or main, horses and two backups.

My mains are Hootenanny, Something Extra, and Guns Loaded. Hootenanny should benefit from both his recent return from a long layoff – which was a decent second in a stakes race at Woodbine – and a return to turf, on which he won the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Something Extra was only nailed late in the Shakertown in his recent seasonal debut, and he tends to string good efforts together. Guns Loaded cuts back in distance off two stakes scores on the downhill course at Santa Anita. I’m a little bit shaky with using Guns Loaded as a main because downhill sprints at Santa Anita and conventional turf sprints such as this one are really different animals, but his excellent current form won me over.

Power Alert and Summation Time are my backups. Power Alert has made a habit of beating me, so I’m throwing him in even though he ran poorly last time in the Shakertown. Summation Time might not be quite good enough, but I think he’s primed for a big effort.

Race 9, Alysheba – No backups for me in this race. I’m going with three mains – Eagle, Noble Bird, and Top Billing. Eagle and Noble Bird are totally logical as they finished one-two in the Ben Ali last month. Eagle gets an even better setup this time for his late run as there is more pace in this race. Noble Bird, who set the pace in the Ben Ali in a much-improved effort reminiscent of his win in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster last June over the Churchill main track, can be effective sitting just off the early lead if necessary.

I’m using Top Billing in equal strength with Eagle and Noble Bird for two reasons. First, he ran his best race in quite some time in winning an allowance event at Keeneland last time out, and while he’s meeting much tougher Friday, his late run fits the anticipated pace scenario. The other reason is that Top Billing has frankly always been a pet of mine. He will be a bit of a price, and I’m hoping to make something interesting happen with him in this sequence.

Race 10, Edgewood – Catch a Glimpse, a perfect 5 for 5 on the grass, including a victory last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, will be the favorite and is a must-use. But I would not stand alone with her. After a most-impressive 3-year-old debut in the Herecomesthebride Stakes, Catch a Glimpse was more workmanlike last time in winning the Appalachian. It speaks highly of Catch as Glimpse that she was able to win with less than her best performance. But simply because her Appalachian wasn’t her best race is why I couldn’t lean heavily on her in this sequence.

Harmonize is also a main for me. Harmonize was good in winning the Sanibel Island in her seasonal debut, I expect her to improve on that effort, and I think she’s the best closer here.

But I will include Outsider Art as a backup, and as betting time approaches, I might even decide to use her more prominently. Outsider Art finished third to Catch a Glimpse in the Appalachian in her first start since October and her first with Lasix, and in terms of Beyer Speed Figures, it was by far the best performance of her career. Outsider Art might well have another forward move in her.

Race 11, Kentucky Oaks – I’ve got three “As,” and none of them are likely favorite Rachel’s Valentina. Rachel’s Valentina was as game as can be in narrowly missing in the Ashland last month off a five-month layoff, earning a career-best Beyer, and if she moves forward even a little, she’ll be a handful. But that’s a big if for me. The Ashland for Rachel’s Valentina was a very demanding effort off a long layoff, and there’s a chance she might regress off it.

I like Land Over Sea best in the Oaks. She finished second to the brilliant Songbird (who unfortunately missed this Oaks due to illness) in three stakes races, and when she finally got away from her, she ran off with the Fair Grounds Oaks.

But I’m also using Lewis Bay and Go Maggie Go as mains. I’m not the biggest Lewis Bay fan, but I respect that she is 2 for 2 at the nine-furlong distance, whereas no one else in the field has won going this long, with most never even having attempted it yet. As for Go Maggie Go, she showed substance in stepping off a maiden sprint win in her debut to win the Gulfstream Park Oaks, and she might be quite good.

I will use Rachel’s Valentina as a backup, along with Weep No More, the upset winner of the Ashland, and Royal Obsession, second to Lewis Bay in last month’s Gazelle.

Here’s the play, listed in main/backup format:
Race 8: 7,11,12/1,2
Race 9: 4,5,7
Race 10: 1,10/7
Race 11: 3,4,13/2,8,11