Victory Formation leads Cox's lineup in Risen Star
NEW ORLEANS – The trainer Brad Cox made his Kentucky Derby debut in 2021, when he ran two horses. In 2022, Cox got three colts into the Derby. This year, Cox might field an entire battalion.
Of the 15 races run outside California offering qualifying points toward the 2023 Derby, Cox has finished first or second – even first and second – in nine. Five of his horses are among the 20 in Daily Racing Form’s most recent Derby Watch; others are knocking at that door.
Cox has three entered Saturday at Fair Grounds in the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes: Potential favorite Victory Formation, possible second choice Tapit’s Conquest, and Angel of Empire, who can’t be discounted, either.
Eleven others went into the Risen Star, carded over 1 1/8 miles as the last of 13 races and the first 100-point Derby qualifier, those points distributed 50-20-15-10-5 to the first five finishers.
Flavien Prat comes from California to ride Victory Formation for the second time after getting a leg up Jan. 1 in the Smarty Jones, where his gate-to-wire win made Victory Formation 3 for 3 and demonstrated the colt, from the first crop of Tapwrit, can do more than sprint. Not that Cox had questions. The one-mile Smarty Jones, which has a shortened stretch run, is a much different kettle of fish than the Risen Star, nine furlongs with a quarter-mile from the head of the homestretch to the wire.
“He’s really, really fast, but the farther the better for this horse,” said Cox.
Victory Formation’s second start, a sprint allowance win over solid competition, still impresses the trainer. Passed at the eighth pole after setting a strong pace, Victory Formation re-rallied. “He’s tough; a fighter,” said Cox.
Yet Cox doesn’t like Tapit’s Conquest any less than Victory Formation in the Risen Star, despite the fact the former makes his stakes debut and has started his career 1 of 3, not 3 for 3. A two-turn maiden winner Oct. 1 at Churchill Downs, Tapit’s Conquest subsequently ran in an allowance race Oct. 30 which was halted mid-contest because of a fallen rider. His start Jan. 21, where he finished a close, closing second as the best horse in a Fair Grounds allowance, was his first real race in 15 weeks.
“He’s the type of horse based off form and numbers, I really see him moving forward,” Cox said.
Angel of Empire didn’t come close to catching Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones, but ran his best race to finish second and has come back with faster workouts than he’s ever posted. Cox had the colt’s jockey gallop him out long and strong after the Smarty Jones. “I was looking down the road. I know he’s going to like the mile and an eighth.”
:: Bet the races on DRF Bets! Sign up with code WINNING to get a $250 Deposit Match, $10 Free Bet, and FREE DRF Formulator. Steve Asmussen matches Cox entry for Risen Star entry, though one of his three, Harlocap, only joined his stable Monday. Harlocap’s owners made a trainer change because after Feb. 28 horses trained by Bob Baffert aren’t eligible to earn Derby qualifying points. Harlocap is Victory Formation’s most likely pace rival and stands a solid chance of his own. Second in a debut sprint at Del Mar where he looked like a route horse, Harlocap was a bang-up second with a very tough trip going two turns before leaving the maiden ranks in style Jan. 22 at Santa Anita. His regular jockey, John Velazquez, comes along for the ride.
Asmussen’s other two have much to prove. Private Creed trains like he handles dirt, but his six starts came on turf, and he’s never raced farther than one mile. Silver Heist was third behind Tapit’s Conquest here last month; Asmussen is confident the colt will improve in his second route.
Three-time Risen Star winner Todd Pletcher sends Crupi from Florida. A maiden loaded with ability, Crupi has been his own worst enemy, breaking badly in all five of his starts. Turning in a career best, he still failed to finish the job Jan. 21 in an Aqueduct maiden after making an eye-catching middle move and coming alongside eventual winner Slip Mahoney, a talented colt.
“It’s been a process with him – a long process,” said Pletcher, who just wants to see Crupi break decently rather than terribly.
While Instant Coffee won the Kentucky Jockey Club in November, connections of runner-up Curly Jack can reasonably claim traffic cost their horse victory. Curly Jack has worked encouragingly for his first start since the KJC and “has done some developing mentally between 2 and 3,” trainer Tom Amoss said. “I’m looking forward to it, but the Risen Star is a big field, and big fields mean traffic for horses that come from off the pace.”
Instant Coffee awaits the Louisiana Derby, and the only horse running back out of the Lecomte is runner-up Two Phil’s. Winner of the Street Sense in October, Two Phil’s attacked the leaders on the far turn of the Lecomte, led in upper stretch, but couldn’t match Instant Coffee in the final half-furlong.
“I think he got outrun, but that other horse isn’t in there,” said trainer Larry Rivelli. “I’m thinking the [faster] pace will help. He’s better when he drops the bit on the backside. The mile and an eighth is the question.”
Trainer Kenny McPeek thinks Sun Thunder, fourth over sloppy going in the Southwest, his stakes debut, will excel at 1 1/8 miles. Determinedly, though, was hanging on for dear life when he won the Tapit’s Conquest allowance race over 1 1/16 miles. Single Ruler has the slimmest of outside shots while still a far more likely winner than either Shaq Diesel or Quiet as Midnight.
Cool, dry conditions should prevail on a card that starts at noon Central. The Risen Star, post time set for 6:14 p.m. Central, immediately follows the Rachel Alexandra, where highly touted Hoosier Philly makes her 3-year-old bow against Chop Chop and four others.
The Mineshaft for older horses on dirt and the Fair Grounds for older horses on turf are part of a low-takeout, all-stakes pick five, which starts with the Colonel Power, a murky turf sprint. Just before the Colonel Power comes a 3-year-old dirt-route allowance race, headlined by Banishing and First Defender, whose winner could show up in the Louisiana Derby. Cox, of course, has one for that race, too.
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