Very short price on Come Dancing in Ruffian Stakes

City of Light probably was the best horse in America when he was retired following his win Jan. 26 in the Pegasus World Cup. But on the Beyer Speed Figure scale, he is not the fastest horse in America this year.

That distinction belonged as of Friday to a New York-based mare named Come Dancing, who got a 114 Beyer, two points higher than City of Light’s Pegasus, when she won the Distaff Handicap by almost eight lengths April 5 at Aqueduct. The towering figure, plus a close second-place finish to high-level performer Marley’s Freedom in her previous start, figures to make Come Dancing a defined favorite Sunday at Belmont in the Grade 2, $250,000 Ruffian Stakes.

Come Dancing, trained by Carlos Martin for Blue Devil Racing, and with Manny Franco set to ride, is listed at 2-5 on the morning line for the one-turn-mile Ruffian. It’s a short price to take, but there are just four others entered, and Come Dancing can bounce off that massive number and still run fast enough to win.

On the surface, it looks like Come Dancing got an easy lead on a slow pace last out in the Distaff, but a look at the charts from that card reveals the Aqueduct track was playing like a plowed field. The fractions the filly set were very legitimate for the class level, and still she got her final furlong in a buzzing 12.10 seconds.

The race also has the hallmark characteristics of a horse producing an inflated speed figure under ideal circumstances, loose on the lead against a limited number of rivals. That’s also the sort of trip Come Dancing got when she scored a second-start first-level allowance win 17 months ago that yielded her first eye-catching Beyer, a 96. The horse drawn inside Come Dancing on Sunday, Frostie Anne, has a 125 TimeformUS early-pace figure compared with a 113 for Come Dancing, but these are not the tells, necessarily, of a vulnerable favorite.

On Dec. 1 in the Go For Wand Stakes, Come Dancing was comfortable stalking the pace three wide and making a middle move to reach contention. Marley’s Freedom came and got her in the end, but only by a neck, and a repeat of that run, to say nothing of the 114 last-start Beyer, gets Come Dancing home again.

Frostie Anne is going to have to cope with Come Dancing for all or most of the trip, which is going to hurt her chances, while Pink Sands and Sun Studio have the look of entrants whose connections rightly seized on the race as a great spot to get a first graded stakes placing.

That leaves Pacific Wind as the main danger – obviously. Pacific Wind won last year’s Ruffian by one length but lost her next four starts and hasn’t yet come back to her performance in this race a year ago. Trainer Chad Brown has freshened her up since she was easily handled by Come Dancing on Dec. 1, and should the favorite falter Sunday, Pacific Wind can come forward enough to take advantage.