Verifying has odds stacked in his favor in Indiana Derby

Verily, a graded stakes victory would vault Verifying’s value to a new level, and it will take a subpar performance to keep the colt from getting one in the Grade 3, $300,000 Indiana Derby on Saturday at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Second in the Grade 1 Champagne last fall and second by a neck in the Grade 1 Blue Grass, Verifying comes off a strong second to the progressive colt Disarm in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes. His two wins have been in maiden and first-level allowance races, and as a $775,000 son of Triple Crown winner Justify, and a brother to 2019 champion mare Midnight Bisou, there is a potentially lucrative stallion career awaiting Verifying.

“He needs to get into the win column in graded stakes,” said Brad Cox, who trains Verifying for a high-powered partnership.

This is the spot. Verifying is 8-5 on the track’s morning line but will almost certainly be an odds-on favorite in the 1 1/16-mile Indiana Derby. The race drew eight other entrants, and only two of them, Raise Cain and Cagliostro, are within shouting distance of an in-form Verifying. Raise Cain was cross-entered in the Iowa Derby but runs in Indiana, trainer Ben Colebrook said Thursday. There was no word at press time where another cross-entered horse, Georgie W., would start.

:: Get Belmont Park Clocker Reports from Mike Welsch and the Clocker Team. Available every race day.

The Indiana Derby, highlight of the marathon Horseshoe Indianapolis season, goes as the last of 12 races on what could be a rainy afternoon. It’s immediately preceded by the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks and is one of eight stakes on a card with an early first post of 11:45 a.m. Eastern.

Other than the Kentucky Derby, where he finished 16th as a pace casualty, Verifying, Marcelio Pedroza picking up the mount, has been rock solid throughout 2023. His fourth-place finish in the Rebel Stakes came with a meaningfully poor trip, and he was neck and neck with Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass. At Ellis last out in the Matt Winn, contested over a sloppy track, he simply ran into a rising colt, Disarm, who was slightly better on the day. Anything close to a repeat of that race and Verifying wins.

“It’s a little bit of a quick turnaround, but he’s had two maintenance works and he looks good,” said Cox, who has a win, a place, and a show from his three Indiana Derby starters.

Verifying has excellent tactical pace but rates for his jockey; from post 5, he’ll be prominent from the start, perhaps tracking rail-drawn Transect.

Transect beat older allowance horses last out and “is a good horse who was a little green his first couple races,” according to trainer Paulo Lobo. He and Act a Fool, in from Hawthorne, are the other principal pace players.

Verifying beat Raise Cain by a little more than six lengths in the Matt Winn and a little less than six in the Blue Grass. Raise Cain’s signature win, in the Grade 3 Gotham, was radically pace-aided. That leaves Cagliostro as the lone real upset chance.

Cagliostro, a scopey son of Upstart, was just so-so in his lone start at age 2 but has come steadily forward as a 3-year-old. He seemed to lose focus late in a Feb. 18 Fair Grounds allowance race, where he took a major step forward following a maiden win, and his Louisiana Derby flop is entirely excusable; the colt broke through the gate pre-start and ran a short way down the track before being reined in and reloaded. Trainer Cherie DeVaux said Cagliostro had a growth spurt following the Louisiana Derby, requiring patience and a light breeze pattern. Even so, Cagliostro, at a one-turn mile trip short of his best, was gaining late on the talented Bill Mott-trained colt Scotland in a June 2 Churchill allowance race. Cagliostro has been working in company with Northern Invader, a sharp Belmont maiden winner last weekend.

“He’s kept his weight, his coat looks good, each start he progresses,” DeVaux said. “His training indicates he should continue that trend.”

In truth, that probably still won’t be enough to beat Verifying.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.