Value Proposition poised to get first stakes win in Red Bank
Value Proposition has one undescended testicle. He raced with one front horseshoe in his most recent race. And he most definitely is the one to beat in the $150,000 Red Bank Stakes, the featured race Saturday at Monmouth Park.
A ridgling, Value Proposition is too talented a turf horse not to have won a stakes race 10 starts into his career, yet here we are. Winner of a maiden race and three allowance races, Value Proposition has two seconds and two thirds but no victories in stakes competition. Chad Brown, who trains 5-year-old Value Proposition for Klaravich Stables, has found a great spot in the one-mile Red Bank to get Value Proposition off the stakes duck.
Brown finds a lot of such spots at Monmouth. Over the last five years in Monmouth turf stakes, Brown’s record stands at 23-12-10 from 63 starters, and the win rate, 38 percent, is held down by the fact Brown often runs multiple horses in a single stakes. Leading rider Paco Lopez, who had a spectacular August at Monmouth, gets the call on Value Proposition.
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Value Proposition, by Dansili, is in excellent form. He started his campaign finishing third, beaten a head by emergent high-class turf sprinter Casa Creed, in the Elusive Quality Stakes. That was followed by a comfortable allowance race win and a strong second-place finish July 16 at Saratoga in the Forbidden Apple Stakes, where Rinaldi got loose on a very easy lead. In the Lure Stakes on Aug. 7 at Saratoga, Value Proposition lost a front shoe on the way to the starting gate and therefore raced for purse money only, finishing a solid third against stronger competition than he faces Saturday.
His main rival is Proven Strategies, trainer Mark Casse’s first runner at the 2021 Monmouth meet. Four-year-old Proven Strategies set the pace and finished seventh April 24 in the Elusive Quality, run down in the final furlong by Value Proposition. Previously a confirmed front-runner, Proven Strategies was rated off the pace July 18 in the Grade 2 Connaught Cup at Woodbine, and rallied to finish third. Taking the tactical adjustment into account, and considering Proven Strategies is a year younger, he should have more upside than Value Proposition. The problem for Proven Strategies is that Value Proposition might simply be a more talented racehorse.
All signs in the local forecast suggest the Red Bank will stay on turf, but in the unlikely event of a rain-off, main track-only entrant South Bend would be formidable.
The Red Bank is the finale on a 12-race card. First post for the day is 12:15 Eastern with the Red Bank scheduled for 5:30.