Untrapped one of many possibilities in Lecomte

NEW ORLEANS – On accomplishment, recent form, speed figures, and just about any level one wanted to approach the Lecomte Stakes, the large field is nearly impossible to separate. Throw in the complicating factor of a wet weather forecast, and everything is up in the air Saturday at Fair Grounds.

One thing that at least seems certain but wasn’t so a week ago – the card will go off as planned. The outbreak of the equine herpesvirus at Fair Grounds has gone in the right direction in recent days, and at this point, there is little doubt that racing will continue unabated this weekend.

There’s an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms pretty much all day Saturday. The main track could wind up soupy, and grass races, including two stakes, might be run on a wet course if they’re run on turf at all. Six stakes, led by the Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte, form the backbone of a 12-race program with an early 12:30 p.m. Central first post. The Lecomte, the last of the stakes, goes as race 11 at 5 p.m.

Twelve were entered in the Lecomte, but 11 at most will run because Dallas Stewart confirmed Thursday he will scratch Saint’s Fan because of a poor outside draw. The Lecomte offers 17 points toward Kentucky Derby qualification distributed 10-4-2-1 to the top four finishers.

What’s a sure sign of an evenly matched race? Uncertainty about who will be favored. The Fair Grounds morning line has Untrapped as the most tepid of choices at 9-2, and that despite the fact that Untrapped has won only a maiden race in two starts and never has been two turns.

Untrapped is one of three entrants from trainer Steve Asmussen, who might have run only one horse had Fair Grounds not come under quarantine because of the viral outbreak. Tip Tap Tapizar, who could dispute the early lead, was scheduled to face Louisiana-breds at Delta Downs, while Untrapped had previously been penciled in for the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park.

Untrapped, by Trappe Shot, had an eventful trip when finishing second in his career debut at Keeneland to Uncontested. Uncontested set the pace and gave way while running well in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and came back to romp in the Smarty Jones. Untrapped won a Churchill Downs maiden sprint of moderate quality by more than five lengths in his second start.

Untrapped has worked five furlongs three times and six furlongs once at Fair Grounds while preparing for his two-turn debut and first start at 3.

“He’s everything you want in a 3-year-old,” Asmussen said. “He’s a nice, athletic colt, and I think he’ll go plenty far.”

The Asmussen-trained Totality merits consideration. He was stopped before the quarter pole when moving toward the leaders in his second start, a two-turn allowance race at Churchill, and was caught inside and behind a very slow pace when second to wire-to-wire winner Cool Arrow last out in the Springboard Mile at Remington Park. Totality came up the fence and quickly galloped out past the winner after crossing the wire.

Totality would benefit from a strongly run race and might get it if Phat Man, who is drawn on the rail, Running Mate, Tip Tap Tapizar, and Pat On the Back all go forward early, as seems possible. Arklow also figures to be running late and would benefit from a quick tempo to the half-mile, and despite being a maiden after three starts, Arklow might be good enough. While he saved ground last out and got a decent run, he chased the loose-on-the-lead Takeoff through a slow-early, fast-late Fair Grounds maiden race.

“He stacks up figure-wise,” said trainer Brad Cox. “A mile and 70 yards could be a touch short for him.”

David Carroll, assistant to trainer Mark Casse, said Takeoff, who impressed in his maiden win, could come from a little off the pace in the Lecomte.

“He had a fantastic work the other day,” Carroll said, referring to a bullet five furlongs in 59.60 on Jan. 10.

Guest Suite should be a major player based on his strong 2-year-old form. He won his maiden second out in a two-turn Keeneland dirt race, then finished third to subsequent Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner McCraken in the Street Sense before cruising to a first-level allowance win in his 2016 finale.

“I think he’s ready to run a good race Saturday,” said trainer Neil Howard. “He only had a short break. He’s done well down here.”

Shareholder Value won a first-level allowance race at Fair Grounds the same day as the Takeoff-Arklow maiden race and clocked a slower time for one mile and 70 yards, though he did draw away to win by more than three lengths. Shareholder Value has raced five times, but trainer Tom Amoss said he remains a work in progress.

“He was better last time, but he still is learning,” Amoss said. “You can’t afford to make mistakes as the competition gets stronger.”