Unpredictable group likely to buck trend of winning Pasadena favorites

ARCADIA, Calif. – Most years, the $100,000 Pasadena Stakes for 3-year-olds is predictable. This is not one of those years.

An eclectic field is entered in the turf mile Sunday at Santa Anita, and finding the winner of the Pasadena has never been this tough. Favorites have won eight times in 12 years, but that information is useful only when the favorite is obvious.

There is nothing obvious about this year’s Pasadena. The list of contenders is unusual and includes Rank, an eight-start maiden; Will Then, a Grade 3-winning filly with a sporadic work pattern; and Shea Brennan, a California-bred stakes winner who has never raced or worked on turf.

:: Access morning workout reports straight from the tracks and get an edge with DRF Clocker Reports

Others are maiden sprint winners unproven at two turns, such as Tiz Secure, Freedom’s Not Free, and Friendly Confines. Fomo Joe is a stakes-placed front-runner in a field loaded with speed. Precision’s fifth-place U.S. debut was better than looked.

The Pasadena, despite being an ungraded race with a modest purse, has produced significant runners. The 2021 winner Rock Your World wired the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby next out. The 2023 Pasadena winner Johannes and 2018 winner River Boyne later won Grade 1s on turf.

This year, who knows?

Well-regarded Rank would be the second maiden to win the Pasadena; Make Music for Me won in 2010 after placing in a Grade 1. Rank, though less accomplished, has faced top company and earned above average figures. He has chased current Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism, stakes winners Gaming and Getaway Car, graded-placed Rodriguez, and maiden winner Baeza.

Based on figures, Rank is qualified to win. But after eight starts on dirt, why turf? “Santa Anita dirt, we love it, but it can be a little demanding on some of them,” trainer Doug O’Neill said. “The grass just kind of brings horses together a little bit more.

“We thought this might be a better chance of a winning effort, and move him forward,” O’Neill added.

Rank’s pedigree supports the switch. He is by Honor A. P., whose progeny are 4 for 27 on turf. Rank’s dam has produced three multiple turf winners. In a race with plenty of pace, Rank and jockey Kyle Frey have a realistic shot to score a come-from-behind upset.

Will Then is the only graded winner in the field. She won the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante Stakes in November at Del Mar. Will Then is the only filly in the field, which is no big deal. What is a big deal is her interrupted workout pattern.

“Preparation-wise hasn’t gone the way I’d hoped,” trainer Jonathan Thomas said. “We’ve had a couple very minor hiccups with her, nothing soundness-wise. There’s been a virus going around the backside that every trainer’s encountered, so it’s kind of derailed her.

“She’s had two published workouts in the last month, which I’m not thrilled about, but maybe we can use this race to set ourself up for something down the road.”

Will Then is nominated to the $300,000 Bourbonette Oaks on March 22 at Turfway Park, which may be too soon. Thomas will consider the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes on April 5 at Keeneland. Umberto Rispoli rides Will Then, who will be rolling late.

Shea Brennan is a California-bred dirt-route stakes winner without a California-bred route stakes in which to run. He won the King Glorious Stakes in December at Los Alamitos and was disqualified and placed second after crossing the wire first in the California Cup Derby on Jan. 18 at Santa Anita. Why turf for Shea Brennan?

“To be honest, there aren’t a lot of options,” trainer Phil D’Amato said. “If he likes the grass, it gives us more options down the road, Cal-bred and open company.”

Antonio Fresu works and rides Shea Brennan, whose recent drills suggest he remains in peak form. “He’s just doing really well, and in need of a race,” D’Amato said.

Shea Brennan is by Tough Sunday, whose progeny are 0 for 6 on turf. Shea Brennan’s dam was 0 for 8 on turf. Her eight named foals are a combined 0 for 24 on turf.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.