Unitarian a rare proven commodity at Gold Cup’s two-mile distance
If past success at the distance is your handicapping cup of tea, then the $250,000 Belmont Gold Cup, race 10 on Friday at Belmont Park, is not for you.
Apparently, in some corners of the North American racing world, there is a murmuring clamor for stayers’ races, and Belmont has heard that call, offering up the inaugural running of the Gold Cup around three turns at two miles on turf.
The 17th-best two-mile Beyer Speed Figure – turf or dirt – in 2015 is a 5. The 16th-best is a 7, and that is because of all the horses who have raced this year in the United States and Canada, 17 have raced at two miles. During 2014, only 34 horses tried the distance.
The top 2015 two-mile Beyer in the land, a 97, belongs to Unitarian, the cleverly named horse (by Pulpit-Minimalist) who is the 5-2 morning-line Gold Cup favorite. Unitarian exits a good, closing third at Keeneland in the 1 1/2-mile Elkhorn Stakes, a race trainer Todd Pletcher and his crew joked beforehand might be too short for Unitarian, who won the two-mile Allen Jerkens on Jan. 31 at Gulfstream by three lengths.
But the Allen Jerkens was a $75,000 race, and for $250,000, Unitarian faces tougher competition, including his own stablemate Red Rifle. The stakes-debuting Innovation Economy looks like a major player, and Dynamic Sky, the winner of the 1 3/8-mile Red Smith last fall at Aqueduct, finished just in front of Unitarian at Keeneland.
Belmont Gold Cup, race 10
KEY CONTENDERS
Innovation Economy (Last 3 Beyers: 97-83-77)
◗ “He always struck me as a stayer,” said trainer Chad Brown, who is starting his first horse going two miles in the Gold Cup, and Innovation Economy’s record backs him up. Just five times started at age 4, Innovation Economy has won his last two races by 10 lengths combined at distances of 11 and 12 furlongs.
◗ Failed to fire in his long-distance debut last September in part because of firm ground. “He’s clearly better with give in the ground,” Brown said. “When this horse gets moisture in the grass, it’s night and day for him.”
◗ Relaxes and had a big late run, routinely getting his final quarter-mile in not much more than 23 seconds.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 2 Innovation Economy. Trainer Chad Brown is 8-0-0-2 over the past five years with last-out winners in turf routes of 10 furlongs or longer in the second start following a layoff. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
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Unitarian (Last 3 Beyers: 91-97-92)
◗ One of two horses in the race with a two-mile win, and the other, Diplomat, scored his against questionable competition overseas and might not be good enough.
◗ Had colic surgery to untwist an intestine late in the spring of 2014, which cost him key months of development just as he had found a niche as a true distance runner. He’s 5 but might just now be hitting peak form.
Red Rifle (Last 3 Beyers: 1076-89-89)
◗ Pletcher’s two entrants won’t get in each other’s way. Unitarian rallies late, and Red Rifle likes to show speed. “I would expect him to be in front,” Pletcher said.
◗ Last four starts, including a good effort behind Effinex in the Excelsior last out, came on dirt, but Red Rifle is 1-3-0 from five grass starts, won a 12-furlong turf race on the Belmont course last year, and nearly wired the 12-furlong Sycamore last fall at Keeneland. Red Rifle might not get the trip, but he should be in front turning for home.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 1 Dynamic Sky. Trainer Mark Casse is 26-1-6-3 with a $0.45 ROI over the past five years in turf routes of 12 furlongs or longer. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan