Two top Europeans hurt by posts in Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

LEXINGTON, Ky. – The big guns come out on the Saturday card, but there are plenty of European horses of note in the two Friday Breeders’ Cup races to be contested on turf, the Juvenile Turf and the Juvenile Fillies Turf. And with course conditions likely to be good at best and soft at worst, the horses from overseas – more accustomed to running on that type of going than Americans – merit even closer scrutiny.

Juvenile Turf

Overseas horses have won five times in the eight-year Juvenile Turf history, with Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden each taking home two trophies. Both trainers have horses for this year’s race, and the Euros stood a very strong chance of winning – until post positions were drawn.

Then, two of the highest-regarded Euros, HIT IT A BOMB and CYMRIC, drew terrible posts, 14 and 13. English bookmakers had made Hit it a Bomb – a hype horse if ever there was one – the favorite for the race but raised his price after the draw. Cymric might be in slightly better shape.

Cymric for trainer Gosden and Godolphin Racing, exits a close second-place finish in the Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere, the big 2-year-old race at Longchamp on the Arc undercard. The turf was firm that day, and his win on soft two back came in a very minor race against just three foes. Cymric did ship well, from all outward appearances, and is a handsome colt with a nice way of going, at least on the Polytrack training track here. He needs to be used but can’t be leaned on too hard with the draw.

Godolphin also has the Richard Fahey-trained Birchwood, who was third last out in the Group 1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes behind two highly regarded horses, Air Force Blue and Herald the Dawn. He ran worse in the Lagardere, and with sprint speed on both sides of his pedigree, he probably is distance-limited.

O’Brien runs Hit it a Bomb and SHOGUN. Hit it a Bomb’s really encouraging win came on the all-weather surface at Dundalk and was impressive enough to generate a lot of buzz, with a corresponding odds drop. Whether he can produce a similar performance on turf – wet turf at that – remains to be seen, and with such a poor draw and low odds, skepticism is warranted.

Shogun offers a better price and is interesting. He’s back with blinkers again after a close sixth in the Lagardere with blinkers off, and he was a pretty good third behind the well-regarded Herald the Dawn two back. He has got a good chance to stay the distance and is drawn much better than his lower-priced stablemate.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Lady Eli ended a two-year Euro win streak last season, and only three international types feature among the entries this year: ALICE SPRINGS, ILLUMINATE, and NEMORALIA.

Nemoralia already has started in the United States, finishing a decent second in the Grade 1 Frizette on dirt, but her overseas grass form can’t stand up against the other two.

Illuminate finished second and Alice Springs fourth when they met in the Cheveley Park Stakes over six furlongs, but Alice Springs, a Galileo filly trained by O’Brien, rates a better chance in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. She has mildly competitive form lines running through two of Europe’s top 2-year-old fillies, Ballydoyle and Minding, and though she is heavily raced this fall, her last-start win was easy enough to be considered little more than a final work for this start.

Illuminate has yet to race beyond six furlongs, and there’s a good chance she struggles to see out this two-turn-mile trip. Anything worse than good ground might also be an issue, and the English barn has struggled in the Breeders’ Cup in particular and American races in general..