With two major Grade 1 wins, Sovereignty likely for second straight Horse of the Year
:quality(75))
LEXINGTON, Ky. - The results of the Breeders’ Cup held last Friday and Saturday at Keeneland were remarkably formful with the top two betting choices - including seven favorites - winning 11 of the 14 races and the third choice winning the other three.
Subsequently, the results of the Breeders’ Cup should leave little to debate when it comes to determining Eclipse Award winner in 10 equine divisions.
While Sovereignty’s victory in the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic is likely to make him Horse of the Year, his resume will be one of the lightest for any Horse of the Year candidate in the modern era. Sovereignty, the 2025 Horse of the Year, only raced four times in 2026, losing his first two starts prior to winning the Grade 1 Whitney and then Saturday’s Classic. In his two wins, he finished ahead of the horses who beat him earlier in the year. Moreover, the Classic, he beat defending Classic winner Forever Young as well as Golden Tempo and Napoleon Solo, who combined to win all three classic races for 3-year-olds.
Ghostzapper, in 2004, is the last horse to be named Horse of the Year with only two Grade 1s, including the BC Classic and Woodward as well as the Grade 2 Tom Fool and Grade 3 Iselin. Flightline, in 2022, went 3 for 3, his victories coming in a trio of Grade 1 stakes - the Metropolitan Handicap, Pacific Classic, and BC Classic.
Perhaps the only alternative to Sovereignty would be Deterministic, who won three Grade 1 stakes, including Saturday’s BC Mile, and went 4 for 5 overall in 2026. The filly Nitrogen went 4 for 7 with two Grade 1 wins but was beaten by Sovereignty in the Grade 1 Whitney.
The 2-year-old Hughes went 5 for 5 with three Grade 1 victories, dominating a weak group of West Coast 2-year-olds before taking the BC Juvenile.
The Eclipse Awards are voted on by three groups – Daily Racing Form, the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters, and the National Thoroughbred Racing Association. Ballots go out in December and are due back in early January, but most of the major players are done racing for the year. The Eclipse Awards ceremony will be held in Palm Beach, Fla., on Jan. 19.
There are still many stakes to be run, including a trio of Grade 1s at Santa Anita on Dec. 26, but here’s a look at each division as of now:
2-year-old males: Hughes should be a unanimous selection based on his 5-for-5 record capped by his 2 1/4-length victory in the BC Juvenile over previously undefeated juveniles American History and Salahudin. U. S. S. Valor, went 2 for 3 with an impressive maiden win followed by a solid victory in the Grade 1 Champagne but he was held out of the Breeders’ Cup.
2-year-old fillies: Emphatic should also be a unanimous choice as she capped a 4-for-4 campaign with her victory in the Juvenile Fillies. She also won the Grade 1 Alcibiades. Miss Monica, second in the Juvenile Fillies won the Del Mar Debutante. European-based Sun Goddess capped a brilliant year winning the Juvenile Fillies Turf, her lone start in North America. Libertango, another Euro-based runner, won the Turf Sprint.
3-year-old male: Golden Tempo’s victories in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes should be enough to earn him an Eclipse Award, though he finished sixth in the Classic. The Puma, runner-up in the Classic, won the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby and Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby and was the runner-up in the Classic. The sprinter Englishman was a two-time Grade 1 winner and finished second in the Sprint. Further Ado narrowly won the BC Dirt Mile to go along with his victory in the Grade 1 Blue Grass and Grade 3 Matt Winn. Napoleon Solo won the Preakness.
3-year-old filly: Neither Counting Stars, a two-time Grade 1 winner, nor Always a Runner, the Kentucky Oaks winner, made it to the Breeders’ Cup. Counting Stars likely gets the nod, having a 2-1 advantage in head-to-head meetings with Always a Runner.
The turf filly Tam Tam is 5 for 7 this year with Grade 1 victories in the Del Mar Oaks and Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup as well as two listed stakes wins.
Older dirt male: Sovereignty is a virtual lock for this award. In the Whitney, he beat Nitrogen, Baeza, Magnitude, and White Abarrio. In the Classic, he beat Forever Young, Knightsbridge, and the top 3-year-olds in the land.
Knightsbridge won graded stakes from seven furlongs to 1 1/4 miles before running third in the Classic. Magnitude still has the Stephen Foster, Razorback, and Dubai World Cup on his resume. Forever Young won the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Older dirt female: Nitrogen locked this one up beating Fully Subscribed in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Fully Subscribed, the Grade 1 Spinster winner, and Splendora, a five-time graded stakes winner who was scratched out of the BC Distaff, are also likely finalists.
Male turf: Deterministic capped a sensational season with his victory over Notable Speech in the Mile, his third Grade 1 stakes of the year and fourth win from five starts overall. His only defeat this year was a second to Notable Speech in the Woodbine Mile. Deterministic scored repeat Grade 1 victories in the Manhattan and Fourstardave as well as the Grade 3 Fort Marcy, downgraded from a Grade 2 the previous year.
Benvenuto Cellini’s turn of foot was so impressive winning the BC Turf, which might garner some support in this category, though he only raced once in North America. Burnham Square, Minaret Station, and Rhetorical had admirable years and could sneak in as a finalist.
Female turf: Kathynmarissa earns this award with her victory in the Filly and Mare Turf, her fourth win from five starts this year, including victories in the Grade 1 Diana, Grade 2 Flower Bowl, and Grade 3 Modesty, where she beat 2025 BC Filly and Mare Turf winner Gezora.
Gimme a Nother, runner-up to Kathynmarissa in the Filly and Mare Turf, had won three graded stakes, including the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor. Classic Q won the First Lady and Just a Game, both Grade 1 stakes, as well as the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile before finishing ninth in the Filly and Mare Turf.
Male Sprinter: The Japan-based T O Elvis shook things up in this division by flying by America’s top sprinter, Englishman, in the in the BC Sprint. It was reminiscent of the move he made winning the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes six months earlier at Churchill Downs.
Englishman won two Grade 1 stakes against 3-year-olds - the Woody Stephens and H. Allen Jerkens - but had no answer for Elvis on Saturday.
Bacio, BC Turf Sprint winner, recorded two other wins in Europe for U.S. trainer Wesley Ward.
Female sprinter: Ways and Means proved her dominance in this division with a 6 1/4-lenth victory in the Filly and Mare Sprint. She also dominated the Grade 1 Ballerina by 5 1/2 lengths and won the Grade 2 Bed o’ Roses by a nose over Grand Job. R Disaster beat Ways and Means in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff but finished eighth in the Filly and Mare Sprint.
Trainer: Potentially the most wide-open category this year. Cherie DeVaux doesn’t have the overall numbers but her becoming the first female trainer to win the Kentucky Derby with Golden Tempo brought tremendous attention to the sport. Golden Tempo also won the Belmont and she also trains the two-time Grade 1 winning 3-year-old Englishman.
Chad Brown won two Breeders’ Cup races and is expected to have two champions - Ways and Means and Kathynmarissa. He’s had 18 individual graded stakes-winning horses thus far this year and won 11 Grade 1 stakes, including the Kentucky Oaks.
Mark Casse is also likely to have two champions, Nitrogen and Counting Stars, has won seven Grade 1s and has 16 individual graded winners. Brad Cox won a Breeders’ Cup race, has six Grade 1 victories, and has 32 graded stakes wins with 22 individual graded stakes-winning horses.
Jockey: Flavien Prat and Jose Ortiz are enjoying tremendous years. Through Sunday, Prat has 290 wins, 77 stakes, and 14 Grade 1s and his horse haves earned $42.3 million in North America. Prat, who has won the last two Eclipse Awards, won three Breeders’ Cup races. When you add in Nysos running second in the $20 million Saudi Cup and other mounts he had that day, Prat’s earnings increase to $47.9 million.
Ortiz has won 276 races, 52 stakes, and 36 graded stakes, including two Breeders’ Cup races, and his horses have earned $41.82 million in North America. When you add in Magnitude’s victory in the $12 million Dubai World Cup in March and other rides he had in Dubai that day, Ortiz’s earnings balloon to $49.1 million. Ortiz also won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes on Golden Tempo and the Kentucky Oaks on Always a Runner.
With two months to race in 2026, both Prat and Ortiz have already surpassed the previous single-season earnings record by a jockey.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.