Synthetic, turf form could be key to Dogwood

The Grade 3, $300,000 Dogwood Stakes on Saturday night at Churchill Downs provides a big opportunity. None of the nine 3-year-old fillies entered for this sprint have ever won a graded stakes race before, giving them a chance to add some black type to their page and to add their name to a list of previous winners that includes champions Covfefe (2019) and Echo Zulu (2022) in recent years.

One would be wise to look at more Churchill Downs history in handicapping this year’s Dogwood, as the fillies entered bring in eclectic accomplishments that include strong turf and synthetic stakes performances. Turf-type horses often run well at Churchill Downs, due to the amount of clay in the track and the typically larger hoof of a turf horse getting a better hold of that surface. In Churchill’s major events, this angle has been seen in the likes of Kentucky Derby winners Animal Kingdom (2011), Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), and Mine That Bird (2009), all previous winners on turf and/or synthetic; and by strong efforts by European shippers such as Arazi, Giant’s Causeway, and Swain in Breeders’ Cups run here.

B G Warrior had a strong winter on Turfway Park’s Tapeta for Ronald Kahles. She crossed the line first in the Gowell Stakes, but was disqualified to second for interference. She returned to win the Valdale Stakes, then was third in both the Cincinnati Trophy and Serena’s Song.

More recently, B G Warrior’s history includes flattering competition. She is coming off an allowance/optional-claiming victory going 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf at Kentucky Downs, a distance that plays more like the seven furlongs of the Dogwood due to that undulating course. Finishing second was Accomplished Girl, who came back to upset the Grade 2 Presque Isle Masters this week.

The turf-to-Churchill dirt angle also applies to Twice as Sweet, a stakes winner on dirt as a juvenile in Maryland and most recently second in the Pea Patch on the Ellis Park turf, and Metaphysical, who owns two stakes placings on turf this year.

Lady Radler won the Goldfinch on the Prairie Meadows dirt and an allowance on the Hawthorne turf. She is looking to rebound after fading to eighth in the Lady Erie on the Presque Isle Tapeta. Also among the eclectic accomplishments of this field, Flamand is twice stakes-placed on dirt this year in Kentucky; Yesternight was second in the Cathryn Sophia at Parx Racing; Norah G is a three-time restricted stakes winner in Louisiana, including against older mares; and Santa Fe Gold won the Texas Thoroughbred Association Oaks.

The companion race to the one-turn Dogwood is the $175,000 Seneca Overnight, in which 3-year-old fillies go 1 1/16 miles. Three-year-old males also have two- and one-turn stakes opportunities on the Saturday night card in the $300,000 Bourbon Trail at 1 3/16 miles and the $300,000 Harrods Creek at seven furlongs.

The distance will be key in examining the Bourbon Trail. Only Kenny McPeek’s Denington has ever run this route, and against much stiffer competition, finishing 10th in a large field in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. He has scored both his wins at 1 1/16 miles and most recently was third in the St. Louis Derby at that distance.

Big Data, who ships in for Michael Lerman, and Lincoln Highway, for Vicki Oliver, are both winners at 1 1/8 miles, just a sixteenth shorter than the Bourbon Trail. Big Data, only once worse than second in his career, is coming off a career-best effort winning the Super Derby on Sept. 2 at Louisiana Downs. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 91; only he, Denington, and allowance winner Oscar Eclipse have broken the 90 ceiling. Lincoln Highway has the advantage of his 1 1/8-mile win coming locally, as he won his maiden against older horses in May at Churchill.

Shirl’s Bee is intriguing as he makes his first start in the United States and first for Dallas Stewart. He campaigned at Meydan earlier this year for Doug Watson, winning his debut and then finishing second in the Group 3 U.A.E. 2000 Guineas, both at a mile. Since shipping here, he has shown an apparent fondness for Churchill with a string of bullet or near-bullet works.

In the Harrods Creek, Everso Mischievous, Loyal Company, and Mount Up, all previous winners at this seven-furlong elongated sprint, figure to vie for favoritism.

Loyal Company, who has scored both his wins around one turn, is the only one of the trio with prior stakes experience. He was third, beaten less than a length with some traffic, in the Ellis Park Derby at a 1 1/2-turn mile. He earned a field-best 94 Beyer with that effort.

Neither Everso Mischievous, trained by Brad Cox, nor Mount Up, for Todd Pletcher, has ever been worse than second. Both are coming off allowance wins at Saratoga against older horses, at seven furlongs and a mile, respectively. Everso Mischievous, who has earned 90-plus Beyers in all four starts, earned a career-best 93 for his last-out win. Mount Up posted a 91 last out.

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