Trip Notes for October 10-11, 2020: Jockey Club Gold Cup, Champagne, and more

Oct. 10

Belmont
Champagne (race 4)

COMMENT: Jackie’s Warrior led them on a merry chase and was geared down late when he easily won the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga Sept. 7. This race looked like a replay and had the same victim (Reinvestment Risk). Jackie’s Warrior went right to the lead, set comfortable splits a few lanes off the rail taking modest pressure from Reinvestment Risk to his outside, was still traveling very easily turning for home when Reinvestment Risk came at him to his outside, was still on cruise control into the lane, and won geared down again while remaining a few lanes off the rail. He goes to the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as the clear favorite, but other classy speed will be there, and he’ll tack on more ground and another turn. Reinvestment Risk, a debut winner at Saratoga Aug. 1 then second to Jackie’s Warrior in the Hopeful, tried to apply a bit more pressure on ‘Warrior this time. He stumbled a bit at the start, recovered to be on ‘Warrior’s right hip, was urged to move closer on the far turn while wide, came up nearly abreast of ‘Warrior into the lane when asked for his all, gamely chased while staying very wide, but couldn’t keep pace with that rival in the lane. The Breeders’ Cup could still be on his radar and he likely won’t have to do the heavy lifting of pressing Jackie’s Warrior early there. Midnight Bourbon, second in the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Sept. 5, stalked behind and outside Reinvestment Risk, crept closer on the far turn while quite wide as he got to Reinvestment Risk’s hip, but couldn’t keep up in the lane, moved toward the inside and finished third. Ambivalent, a stakes-place maiden from Southern California, chased from his rail slot, sat behind and inside Reinvestment Risk and Midnight Bourbon, moved a bit closer on the far turn while staying on the fence, but came up empty.

Belmont
Frizette (race 5)

COMMENT: It was a summit of sorts for top billing among the New York-based juvenile fillies as Grade 3 Schuylverille winner Dayoutoftheoffice took on Grade 1 Spinaway winner and favorite Vequist, and it was the former who got first run and proved best. Easy winner of her first two starts, Dayoutoftheoffice pulled her way up to sit second just behind and outside early pacesetter Joy’s Rocket with Vequist just in behind on the rail. Dayoutoftheoffice turned up the heat on Joy’s Rocket to her outside on the far turn, moved swiftly to the lead while wide, opened up into the lane, rebuffed a challenge from Vequist to her outside, and strode clear for the handy win. Her final time for the mile wasn’t far behind what super-impressive Jackie’s Warrior did about 30 minutes earlier (1:35.82/1:35.42). On to Keeneland for the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Nov. 6. Vequist got outrun early by Joy’s Rocket to her outside, seemed content to sit third just behind Joy’s Rocket and Dayoutoftheoffice while staying on the fence, started to move off the inside on the far turn, ended up in Dayoutoftheoffice’s wake turning for home, pitched wider out into the lane to make her run, briefly loomed a threat, but couldn’t keep pace with the winner in the final furlong. The Breeders’ Cup figures on her radar as well. Cilla, back to dirt after being no factor when ninth in a turf route stakes at Monmouth Sept. 7, stalked just behind the eventual winner racing just outside of Vequist, was unable to go with the top two in the lane but kept to her task to get third. Cantata was the disappointment. The $950,000 daughter of Medaglia d’Oro romped by 10 1/4 lengths in her debut at Saratoga Aug. 16, but here she was last early, steadily advanced up the inside, crept closer on the rail once Vequist vacated that spot into the far turn, came off the inside into the lane as if poised to make a run, only to come up empty.

Belmont
Flower Bowl (race 8)

COMMENT: Civil Union beat some of these in the Grade 2 Glens Falls going 1 3/8 miles at Saratoga Sept. 5, and despite the slight cutback in distance, the daughter of War Front scored her fourth straight win. She sat back as Lovely Lucky set a slow pace under some pressure from Cambier Parc, remained toward the back while saving ground ahead of only My Sister Nat, started to advance on the far turn while staying inside, was trapped behind horses into the lane, and bulled her way through a couple lanes off the rail. She battled with Cambier Parc to her inside, was challenged by No Nay Never to her immediate right, and withstood a late charge by My Sister Nat a few lanes to the outside. This earns her a shot at the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Keeneland Nov. 7, though obviously the water will be deeper there and trainer Shug McGaughey is also concerned the 1 3/16-mile trip might be too short for her and that she might not get the firm turf she prefers. My Sister Nat, a rallying second to Civil Union in the Glens Falls, was devoid of speed, as usual, sitting last from the start. She made up ground into the far turn, pitched wide on the turn to start her run, wider still into the lane, surged into contention as if she might blow past her rivals, seemed to flatten out a bit, but got going again late to just miss. The Breeders’ Cup is a possibility for her as well. No Nay Never, coming off a two straight stakes wins including a romp at Laurel Sept. 7 and trying this longer trip for the first time, bided her time racing just outside of Civil Union, bumped with Civil Union as that gal came out for room into the stretch, battled on gamely, and only succumbed in the final yards. Cambier Parc, a multiple Grade 1 winner as a 3-year-old last year and coming off a second in the Grade 2 Canadian at Woodbine Sept. 12, her first start in 11 months, broke sharply to go right to the lead. She soon relinquished pacesetting duties to Lovely Lucky to her outside, stalked that rival through a slow pace while saving ground, moved through nicely into the lane to challenge, battled with the top three to her right and tired a bit in the final half-furlong. Her other try at this 10-furlong trip saw her flatten out a bit late, so maybe this distance is just a bit beyond her at this highest level.

Belmont
Jockey Club Gold Cup (race 9)

COMMENT: The 3-year-olds Happy Saver and Mystic Guide completed the exacta at the expense of heavy favorite Tacitus. Happy Saver, now undefeated in four starts and coming off a stakes win at Laurel Sept. 7, was content to sit just behind and inside Tacitus as that guy set a dawdling pace. Happy Saver raced in tandem with Mystic Guide, who was to his outside, stayed inside on the far turn when asked for run, had to wait a bit for room, moved through a narrow opening, and battled with Mystic Guide to get the win and maybe earn a shot at the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland Nov. 7. Trainer Todd Pletcher wouldn’t commit to running in the Breeders’ Cup after the race. Mystic Guide, a bit reluctant to load, stalked outside and behind Tacitus, moved up nicely outside Tacitus on the far turn, made it three across the track in midstretch, but couldn’t quite finish with the winner while getting the better of Tacitus. Trainer Mike Stidham said the horse probably wouldn’t go to Keeneland but instead point to a 4-year-old season. Tacitus, coming off a second in the Grade 1 Woodward, opened up some into the far turn as if primed to go on to victory, was then challenged on both sides by the 3-year-olds into the lane, battled between those two, but relented some in the final half-furlong. This may have been his best shot at a Grade 1 considering he got to dictate the pace and wasn’t facing the best of the 3-year-olds. The Breeders’ Cup Classic remains on his radar. Prioritize, third in the Woodward, sat a couple lengths off the pace, just behind Happy Saver and Mystic Guide, while saving ground, crept closer into the far turn, was still in the hunt turning for home, but couldn’t keep up with the top three when it mattered.

Belmont
Sands Point (race 10)

COMMENT: Tamahere made her U.S. debut after showing talent in France, and the way she won hints she’s a real comer. She gave trainer Chad Brown his fourth win in this race. She was reluctant to load and loaded without a rider, but she broke decently to sit toward the back while saving ground as Pure Wow set a slow pace. Tamahere advanced going to the far turn while still saving ground, came off the inside on the far turn and pitched widest of all, and blew past the leaders into the lane, winning in hand. Speaktomeofsummer, winner of the Grade 2 Lake Placid at Saratoga July 19 and shortening up after finishing fourth in the Saratoga Oaks Aug. 16, stalked while saving ground, angled out into the to make a run, had to steady in traffic and wait for room, got going again when room materialized, and finished well for second. Drop a Hint, second in a stakes at Gulfstream Sept. 5, stalked in third from the start, moved closer to Pure Wow to her inside, moved off the inside for room into the lane, and kept to her task well to get the show. Miss J McKay, moving to a mile for the first time after three straight turf sprint stakes placings, had a dreadful trip. She sat second inside and behind the pacesetter, was boxed in, tried to find room to go through along the rail to no avail, steadied repeatedly through the lane, and was never able to extend herself. She wasn’t going to beat the winner but might well have been second.

Keeneland
Fayette (race 8)

COMMENT: Mr Freeze tailed off some this summer when sixth in the Grade 1 Met Mile and sixth in the Grade 2 Alysheba, but the 5-year-old son of To Honor and Serve overcame a wide trip to get back on track here. Mr Freeze stalked the pace a couple lengths off the lead while wide into the first turn, pulled his way closer to the lead while wide down the backstretch, was then widest of a quartet setting the pace into the far turn, got the better of pacesetter Mo Mosa turning for home, opened up as if ready to go on to a big win, but then had to battle when Aurelius Maximus came at him. This could lead to a shot at the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (he’s likely better at that trip than he would be at the 1 1/4 miles of the Classic). Aurelius Maximus was splendid in defeat. He easily won an optional claimer at Churchill Downs Sept. 5 after eight months off. Here, he stalked while between horses, was part of a quartet battling for the lead going to the far turn, pulled back, switched outside, and got going again turning for home. He challenged outside Mr Freeze in the lane but couldn’t outfinish him. Title Ready, fifth in the Alysheba, raced a couple lengths off the leaders while wide, advanced on the far turn, bumped with Coastal Defense to his inside, and kept to his task willingly in the lane to be third. Coastal Defense, stepping up in class after a first-level allowance win at Churchill Sept. 27, stalked while saving ground from his rail slot, came just off the rail on the far turn when between horses, got bounced around in traffic turning for home, moved back toward the inside in the stretch and finished willingly. Mo Mosa, a 3-year-old facing elders after a second in the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby at Remington Park Sept. 27, went right to the lead on the inside, took pressure from a number of rivals through slow splits, battled with Mr Freeze to his outside, but gave way readily once headed. Tax, the 7-2 second choice on the morning line, was scratched.

Keeneland
Queen Elizabeth II (race 9)

COMMENT: Harvey’s Lil Goil just failed to fend off Micheline when second by a neck in the Dueling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs Sept. 10, but cutting back 1 ½ furlongs helped her turn the tables. From her rail slot she broke inward on turf rated “good,” abruptly came off the rail to get outside early pacesetter Sweet Melania and sit on her right hip, came abreast of ‘Melania on the turn, got the better of her into the lane, opened up, and got to the line before the hard-charging Micheline. She could return in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf here Nov. 7 but that would mean taking on top-class elders and more ground. Micheline stalked in fourth outside Hendy Woods, racing in Harvey’s Lil Goil’s wake. She was pushed wide into the lane as Hendy Woods lugged out, and finished well. Magic Attitude, dazzling winner of the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks in her U.S. debut Sept. 19, bided her time early, advanced going to the far turn while staying inside, moved through a hole when Hendy Woods came off the rail, loomed a big threat into the lane, only to flatten out a bit in the final furlong. Could be she’s better with a bit more ground. Red Lark, winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks Aug. 22, sat last while not far off the rail, mounted a rally into the lane, briefly looked threatening in the stretch while staying inside, only to flatten out a bit in the final half-furlong. Sweet Melania, second by a nose in the Grade 3 Lake George at Saratoga Aug. 28, was hounded on the lead by Harvey’s Lil Goil to her outside, battled back along the rail, but gave way once headed.

Monmouth
Monmouth Stakes (race 8)

COMMENT: Almanaar was making his first start since winning this race in May 2019. Trained by Chad Brown, the 8-year-old son of Dubawi came back from that long layoff to defend his title. He bided his time early as the 3-2 favorite as longshot Compound It set a modest pace. Almanaar remained well back down the backstretch, started to advance heading to the far turn while wide, pitched wider out into the lane, grabbed the lead by midstretch, and edged clear to the line. Serve the King, stepping up in class after a third in a stakes on Laurel turf Sept. 7, sat a few lengths off the pace after getting to the inside from his outside post, came off the inside into the far turn as he started his run, remained wide into the lane, rallied with the eventual winner in the stretch, but couldn’t keep up in the final furlong. He’s run just six times so there’s still upside here. Bal Harbour, a multiple stakes winner on dirt who was trying turf for the first time here, stalked the pace while a few lanes off the rail, challenged for the lead on the far turn, put his head in front briefly turning for home while inside, and was still in the fight with the top two to midstretch. Megacity, a rallying second in the Grade 3 Red Bank here Sept. 5, stalked while saving ground, was trapped behind horses on the turn forcing him to wait for room, came through a seam into the stretch, and made some headway.

Oct. 11

Belmont
Futurity (race 7)

COMMENT: Second of July was a hefty 68-1 when he won his debut Sept. 20 here in a turf sprint. He was the longest-priced horse in this race (15-1) and again proved best, earning a shot at the Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Keeneland Nov. 6. Second of July sat back as Momos set a solid pace under pressure from Gypsy King. Second of July crept closer on the far turn while between horses, rallied a few lanes off the rail just outside of County Final, and got to the line before hard-charging favorite After Five to his outside. After Five second beaten a nose by stablemate and today’s rival Trade Deal in his only start, a turf sprint at Kentucky Downs Sept. 10, lagged at the back of the pack. He moved closer going into the far turn and had nowhere to go turning for home. After Five pitched out sharply to be widest of all into the lane, finished well, but just ran out of room. This was a fine try and despite being a maiden he showed he wouldn’t be out of place in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Momos, trying turf for the first time after last finishing third to top juvenile Jackie’s Warrior in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special, went right to the lead, took pressure from Gypsy King to his outside, battled with that rival into the stretch, and couldn’t finish with the top two. County Final, expected to shows speed after setting the pace and finishing fourth in a tough stakes at Kentucky Downs Sept. 12, was reserved a couple lengths off the pace, moved closer on the far turn, loomed a threat into the lane inside the eventual winner, but flattened out in the final half-furlong.

Belmont
Matron (race 9)

COMMENT: Royal Approval dominated maidens on Kentucky Downs turf Sept. 9 and validated that form and 1-2 favoritism with a professional win here. She sat on the right hip of pacesetter Union Gables, went after her in earnest in the stretch to her outside, got the better of her in midstretch and edged clear. This earns her a spot in the Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, though her trainer, Wesley Ward, already has a number of runners targeting that including likely heavy favorite Golden Pal. Of course, being by two-time Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow she may be even better going longer, so the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf could be in play instead. Union Gables was trying turf for the first time after running third in an off-the-turf stakes at Saratoga Sept. 3 to Simply Ravishing, who came back to romp in the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland. Here, Union Gables set a modest pace while on the fence, battled back when challenged by the winner into the lane, and only relented in the final half-furlong. Magisterium, making her U.S. debut after showing loads of talent in England, was slow into stride to be last early, started a run inside on the far turn, accelerated strongly between horses in the lane, moved to the rail, but couldn’t sustain her rally. Niente stalked a few lengths off the pace, moved closer turning for home, but took a bad step in the lane, was pulled up and vanned off with an injured right fore.