Trip Notes for March 28, 2020: Florida Derby, Pan American, and more

March 28

Gulfstream
Hal’s Hope (race 6)

COMMENT: Identifier took advantage of a hot pace, a pace breakdown and a clear trip to post a 60-1 upset. Sent off at those huge odds despite winning two of his last three, the son of Creative Cause was taking a step up in class. While he’d shown speed before this time he sat midpack from the start as Rare Form set a strong pace under pressure from Bodexpress, started to advance on the far turn with an inside run, swung to the outside into the lane, wider still once straightened and continued his run widest of the top three to roll past Bodexpress on the rail and outfinish Just Whistle to his immediate inside. Just Whistle, fourth in an optional claimer here Feb. 29, his first start in almost eight months and getting blinkers, was just in front of the winner from the start, remained in front of that rival as he advanced on the far turn toward the inside, swung out into the lane, continued on resolutely, couldn’t quite match the winner to his outside but edged past Bodexpress to his inside for second. Bodexpress, the 2-1 favorite who was dropping after finishing fifth in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup here Jan. 25 and eleventh in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile here Feb. 29, broke well, dogged pacesetter Rare Form from the start, moved closer to that foe into the far turn, took the lead from that spent rival, opened up a clear lead turning for home, maintained a clear lead into the stretch racing toward the inside, tired and shortened stride inside the furlong and was unable to fend off the top two who rolled past to his outside. Eye of the Jedi, eighth at 105-1 in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper here Jan. 25 and 128-1 here, dwelt at the start to get away poorly, sitting last, remained last down the backstretch, started a run on the far turn and kept to his task to pass a number of rivals, though he was never a threat to the top three. American Tattoo, the 9-2 second choice as the Argentine Grade 1 winner returned to dirt after fading to eleventh in the Grade 3 W. L. McKnight on turf here Jan. 25, sat a few lengths off the two pacesetters, remained in that stalking position to the far turn but came up empty thereafter.

Gulfstream
Orchid (race 10)

COMMENT: Mean Mary set a modest pace in the Grade 3 La Prevoyante here Jan. 25 then blew the race open into the lane. Originally targeted for the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland in a few weeks but opting for this instead after the Keeneland meet was canceled, she did it again as the 4-year-old daughter of Scat Daddy again led her rivals on a merry chase. She broke well to go right to the lead, moved to the rail as longshot Beau Belle gave chase, galloped along through slow splits holding a narrow advantage while moving to the fence, had to scatter a few geese on the course into the clubhouse turn but didn’t lose her action, continued to set a slow pace holding the advantage, was asked for run on the far turn, opened up some as Beau Belle fell away, was kept to her task as Gentle Ruler gamely chased her and maintained her advantage to the line staying on the rail all the while. Trainer Graham Motion said he thinks she can be competitive with the top turf distaffers in the land (are you listening Chad Brown?) in the coming months. He said she’ll be freshened and target the likes of the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga and Grade 1 Beverly D. at Arlington. Gentle Ruler, winner of six of her last seven including the Grade 3 Dowager at Keeneland when last seen Oct. 20, sat a couple lengths off the pacesetting winner while staying on the fence just behind the eventual winner, started to advance on the far turn to be right behind Mean Mary, came out from behind that rival into the lane, gamely gave chase in the stretch, was able to close the gap some but never quite able to get on terms. Still, considering the layoff and that the winner controlled everything from the start this was a good run. Elizabeth Way, smart winner of her first two starts in the U.S., both here, including the Grade 3 The Very One Feb. 29, broke a tad slowly from her far outside post, established position midpack, moved to the rail going into the far turn the first time, was content to remain there while saving ground all the way to far turn, started to advance while inside, was asked for run while staying on the fence into the lane, kept to her task decently for third but was never really a danger to the top two. Cap de Creus, eighth in the The Very One as the 5-2 favorite after being far back early after a troubled start, showed more speed here to stalk a few lengths behind the eventual winner while a couple lanes off the rail, remained there to the far turn, was asked for run on the turn and into the lane but didn’t have enough oomph to improve her position.

Gulfstream
Gulfstream Park Oaks (race 11)

COMMENT: Trainer Ken McPeek has been telling anyone who would listen how much he liked his filly Swiss Skydiver. Well, the daughter of Daredevil proved him right as she led all the way to be a convincing winner. Coming off a well-beaten third in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra at the Fair Grounds Feb. 15 (6 1/2 lengths behind winner Finite, 1 /4 lengths behind runner-up and champion British Idiom), she shot right out to a clear lead, moved to the rail, was able to set dawdling splits while still holding a clear lead to the far turn while staying inside, took some pressure from Lucrezia, rebuffed that rival into the lane, and came off the rail some in the lane as she edged clear. McPeek said he’ll give her a freshening and see how the national stakes schedule shakes out as he eyes a way to get her to the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs Sept. 4. Lucrezia, coming off two big wins at Tampa Bay including the Suncoast last time out Feb. 8, chased the winner from the start while saving ground, moved closer on the far turn, came off the inside to challenge outside the winner into the lane, gamely chased her but was unable to really make her sweat and just held second. Lake Avenue, big winner of the Grade 2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct in the fall but fading fourth in the Busher there March 7, sat midpack from the start while between horses, got jostled some on the first turn, seemed to be travelling well a couple lanes off the rail, moved up nicely on the far turn to loom a threat outside of Lucrezia but like that foe couldn’t get to the winner, staying on decently to just miss in the photo for second. Spice Is Nice, romping 12-length winner of her debut here Jan. 12 and then second to Tonalist’s Shape in the Grade 2 Davona Dale here Feb. 29,was a bit slow into stride, ending up toward the back of the pack into the first turn while very wide, remained toward the back a few lanes off the rail down the backstretch, was urged to get going heading to the far turn, came with a nice run between horses on the far turn and stayed on decently in the lane to improve her position some just inside of Tonalist’s Shape but was never a factor. Tonalist’s Shape, the favorite after winning her first six starts including the Davona Dale, settled midpack early while quite wide, remained wide to the far turn, was urged to get going on the turn while still very wide but seemed to be running in place to the line and unable to make a dent. In defense of Spice Is Nice and Tonalist’s Shape they really had no chance with the race shape, but the fact neither made an impression at any point was disappointing.

Gulfstream
Pan American (race 12)

COMMENT: This looked like it was to be a coronation of Zulu Alpha as the top male turf distance horse. At least it looked that way for about 11 furlongs, but longshot Bemma’s Boy had other ideas as the 5-year-old gelded son of Into Mischief posted the upset. Freshened since a nice second in the Grade 3 John B. Connally at Sam Houston Jan. 26, he got a dream trip stalking the pace while saving ground, sitting just behind Spooky Channel. He remained there to the far turn, came off the inside to get out from behind Spooky Channel, Current and Zulu Alpha, swerved wider out in midstretch and finished with a flurry late while wide to nip stablemate Zulu Alpha to his immediate inside and Current further inside along the rail. Zulu Alpha, smashing winner of the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf and who swerved to take a shot at this since his original target, the Grade 1 Old Forester Turf Classic at Churchill which was to be May 2, has been postponed until Sept. 5, sat well back from the start, a couple lanes off the rail, bided his time there just outside second choice Channel Cat, made a strong, wide move down the backstretch to reach contention, was three wide challenging leaders Current to his immediate inside and Spooky Channel along the rail, looked poised to take over from those rivals into the lane but found himself locked in a desperate battle with Current to his inside only to have Bemma’s Boy surge past to his outside in the final strides. Current stalked pacesetter Spooky Channel from the start, continued to press that foe through solid splits, moved up to challenge that foe on the far turn only to be immediately joined by Zulu Alpha to his outside, battled hard with that rival the rest of the way while moving to the fence to just narrowly miss in a big try. Channel Cat had a tough trip. He broke slowly and inward to be at the back of the pack early, was able to establish position along the rail just inside of Zulu Alpha, crept closer down the backstretch while remaining on the fence, got caught up in some traffic on the far turn, came off the inside, found a seam between rivals, moved through to loom a threat but had to steady very late when the hole between Bemma’s Boy and Zulu Alpha disappeared. That late trouble probably didn’t cost him a position though he might have been in the mix. Focus Group, winner of this last year of a similar layoff, was quite wide early from his far outside post, stalked the pace while remaining widest of all under the wire the first time, took back a bit to be midpack while moving inside some, just ahead of Zulu Alpha, bided his time just outside Channel Cat down the backstretch, made a mild move into the far turn, pitched widest of all into the lane but was unable to get involved.

Gulfstream
Appleton (race 13)

COMMENT: Social Paranoia was making his first start since capturing a stakes at Kentucky Downs Sept. 8 and trainer Todd Pletcher had him primed and ready as he posted an impressive win. He was away slowly to be last early as first Maraud and Dr. Edgar set a strong pace, soon to be joined by El Tormenta to their outside. Social Paranoia meanwhile bided his time well back while saving ground (in fact, was last), moved toward the outside to start his run on the far turn, pitched wider still into the lane and closed furiously widest of all before veering inward in deep stretch, rolling past his rivals to win going away from stablemate Sombeyay. He did have to survive a claim of foul from third finisher March to the Arch. Sombeyay, favored off a game win in the Grade 3 Canadian Turf here Feb. 29, got a dream trip sitting just behind the dueling trio, moved up easily to challenge for the lead into the lane, got the better of those pacesetters, took the lead in midstretch but couldn’t counter his stablemate’s charge to his outside. March to the Arch sat not far behind the pacesetters while saving ground, remained inside to the far turn, found himself in traffic into the lane, found a seam between horses, moved through and toward the outside, surged into contention only to have to check some when the lane between Social Paranoia and Sombeyay vanished as Social Paranoia came inward late. His rider lodged a claim of foul against Social Paranoia but the result was allowed to stand. Hembree, not disgraced when eighth in the Canadian Turf, lagged well back while saving ground, remained inside to the top of the lane, came off the inside in the stretch and finished smartly to end up just behind the top three. El Tormenta, winner of the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile last Sept. 14 and making his first start since a sixth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile at Santa Anita Nov. 2, broke slowly from his very tough far outside post, got caught extremely wide into the first turn, remained very wide into the backstretch, had his hand forced by the trip as he then rushed up to challenge the two pacesetters to their outside in an effort to avoid staying on such a wide path, set the pace with those two to the midpoint on the far turn but was gassed from the wide trip and early use of fuel and gave way.

Gulfstream
Florida Derby (race 14)

COMMENT: Tiz the Law’s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth win here Feb. 1 was dazzling and the son of Constitution backed it up with another big win. He got a dream trip, stalking pacesetters Shivaree on the rail and Ete Indien in the two path, remained there to the far turn, moved up easily outside those two rivals to challenge, first put away Ete Indien, then had to work a bit to dispatch with Shivaree but did so in the final furlong, edging clear. With the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby postponed until Sept. 5 we’ll see what path his connections take. Shivaree, a big longshot at 80-1 who was coming off a second in the Hutcheson (a sprint) here Feb. 29, broke alertly, went right to the lead on the rail into the first turn, was soon joined by Ete Indien to his outside, dueled with that foe through modest splits, looked in trouble when Ete Indien and then Tiz the Law seemed to go past him to his outside turning for home but valiantly fought on, retaking second from Ete Indien and giving the winner a bit of a fight before succumbing to end up second. Ete Indien, second in the Holy Bull and then a big winner of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth here Feb. 29, originally had a dreadful draw (post No. 12) but four scratches to his inside resulted in him having a much better post (No. 8). He was a little lathered up going to the post but broke alertly, showed his customary speed to press early pacesetter Shivaree to his inside, continued to duel with that foe though the splits weren’t terribly fast, looked very dangerous when challenging for the lead turning for home and into the lane but couldn’t sustain his bid. His effort looks better when you note he reportedly came back with a cut on a back leg, lost a shoe and grabbed a quarter. Gouverneur Morris, a $600,000 son of Constitution and smart winner of an optional claimer at Tampa Feb. 14, his first start in four months, settled a couple lengths off the pace between horses, not far behind Tiz the Law, remained there down the backstretch, was urged to get going into the far turn, didn’t immediately respond but found a gear turning for home while wide, briefly loomed a threat into the lane after going around Independence Hall, made some headway while wide to nearly get to the second- and third-place finishers to their outside but was never a danger to the winner. Independence Hall, second in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Feb. 8 and who had acted up in the saddling area in prior starts but was well behaved here, broke a bit slowly, got pushed out very wide on the first turn, moved closer while still wide, not far behind Tiz the Law, made a threatening run on the far turn while still wide to be just behind Tiz the Law, but died on his run. This might be further proof he may be better playing a shorter game.