Trainer stats point out Mighty Mick

VANCOUVER, British Columbia – Daily Racing Form’s Formulator is one of the best tools available for handicappers, and trainer stats provided by Formulator might be the key in solving the complex puzzle that is the fifth race Sunday at Hastings. There are no standouts in the 1 1/16-mile, and most of the horses will be going around three turns for the first time in the first-level allowance race for 3-year-olds that drew eight horses.

Mighty Mick, whom trainer Jim Brown claimed on behalf of Mohamad Khan for $25,000 on June 17, is among the six horses that will be going a middle distance for the first time. He was favored in the 6 1/2-furlong claiming race for 3-year-olds he was haltered out of, but he had a wide trip and finished fifth.

The past five years at Hastings, Brown has a 17 percent strike rate and $3.16 return on investment with claimed horses making their initial start for him, according to Formulator. Over the same time period at Hastings, Brown has a 25 percent strike rate and an impressive $10.52 ROI with horses that were going a mile or longer the first time.

Digging deeper into Formulator to find out why the ROI is so high, it turns out a horse he claimed on behalf of Khan for $16,000 on July 16 last year, Hunters Appeal, paid $74.30 when he won the $50,000 Sir Winston Churchill Derby Trial going 1 1/16 miles for the first time Aug. 7.

Sahin Civaci was aboard when Hunters Appeal upset the Derby Trial. Cavici, who the past couple of years has won with 22 percent of his mounts from Brown, will be riding Mighty Mick when he breaks from post 2.

KEY CONTENDERS

Mighty Mick, by Sungold

Last 3 Beyers: 59-58-55

◗ Due to the wide trip, it is easy to forgive him for flopping as the chalk in his last start.

◗ He is a big, good-looking horse, and his 410 Tomlinson for the distance is the highest in the field, so he should be okay with the added yardage.

◗ He also was on his toes and galloped out strongly when Cavici worked him a bullet five furlongs in 1:00.60 on June 28.

Not Yet, by Colonel John

Last 3 Beyers: 60-63-48

◗ His stakes-winning dam and lone sibling only won sprinting, but he runs like a horse that wants more distance.

◗ Trainer Rob Gilker has won with three of his last eight horses that were stretching out to a middle distance for the first time.

Another Guinness, by Rosberg

Last 3 Beyers: 44-56-43

◗ The full brother to route stakes winner Go for Guinness is adding blinkers and could thrive in his first route test for leading trainer Phil Hall.

◗ Hall has a 14 percent strike rate and $1.00 ROI with horses going a mile or longer for the first time during the last five years, according to Formulator.