Trademark, Happy American have equal chance despite odds in Fayette

Trademark raced too close to the leaders in the Lukas Classic, while Happy American was too far away from them. From different positions, both horses are capable of winning the Grade 2, $350,000 Fayette Stakes, featured race Saturday on closing day of Keeneland’s fall meet.

So deep and competitive is the Fayette, a 1 1/8-mile dirt race, that Trademark was made the 9-2 morning-line favorite. Rarely does a favorite go off at a price so long, but it’s possible in the Fayette, which drew 14 horses, a dozen of whom can start. One of two also-eligibles, Gasoline and Time for Trouble, can get into the race because Film Star will be scratched to race in the Forty Niner at Aqueduct, Daily Racing Form’s David Grening reported.

Even with speedy Film Star out, early pace packs the Fayette; five entrants enter with TimeformUS early pace numbers of 116 and higher, speed drawn both inside and on the far outside.

:: Bet Keeneland with confidence! Get DRF PPs, Picks and more.

“Sometimes when it looks like that, nobody goes, but this might be different,” said Neil Pessin, trainer of Happy American, a dedicated one-run closer.

Happy American at peak performance, such as his third-place finish with a 99 Beyer Speed Figure in the July 1 Stephen Foster, is good enough for the Fayette. A 5-year-old Runhappy gelding owned by Lothenbach Stables, Happy American was good last winter, too, winning the Tenacious and the Louisiana during December and January at Fair Grounds. Pessin said he erred running Happy American again Feb. 18 in the Mineshaft Stakes. The gelding raced below form and didn’t come back to himself for a couple months.

Happy American got turned out for a couple weeks after the Stephen Foster – then fell out the back door in his comeback run, the Sept. 30 Lukas Classic. More than 20 lengths behind going down the backstretch, Happy American closed ground but could only get fifth.

“He always finishes his races well, but he can’t get too far back like last time,” Pessin said. “He’s sitting on go for this one.”

The Lukas Classic’s first half-mile in a swift 46.66 led to early leader Five Star General finishing last of eight and pace pressing Americanrevolution tiring to sixth. Sitting just behind them and taking the lead in upper stretch was Trademark, who was run down late by deep-closing Clapton partly because of his early and mid-race exertions, partly because that’s who Trademark is.

“Timing with him is important,” said trainer Vickie Oliver. “When he makes the lead, he can get lackadaisical.”

What Trademark didn’t get from an apparently hard race in the Lukas Classic – knocked out.

“He’s kind of this horse who thrives on training. He gallops strong every day. I think he’s just getting better and better, filling out more, starting to figure things out,” Oliver said.

Trademark has an outside draw but with luck can get over and into a stalking position behind whichever front-runners are most intent upon leading. Last fall at Keeneland, that was the kind of trip Trademark parlayed into a 3 3/4-length second-level allowance-race win in a 1 1/8-mile dirt race.

Three-year-old Il Miracolo’s last two races, a win in the Smarty Jones and a wide-post third in the Pennsylvania Derby, both at Parx Racing, fit the spot, and the 3-year-old gets a few pounds from his older rivals. But Il Miracolo has started at least once a month since his career debut in September 2022, and one wonders how long he can keep up such a schedule.

Three horses come out of a high-end Churchill Downs allowance race Sept. 28. Dash Attack won it with a 101 Beyer that overrates his capability.

Best Actor, the 2022 Smarty Jones winner, ran the best race of a three-start 4-year-old campaign easily winning a New York allowance race Sept. 23, but he has a far outside post and will be part of the pace. O’Connor, fifth in the Woodward last out, is another late-running chance and ought to be higher than his 5-1 morning line.

Happy American is 15-1 on the line. Give him a clean trip behind a hot pace and his backers would be smiling at anything close to that number.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.