Total Los Alamitos pick six pool should be in vicinity of $750,000 on Thursday

The largest pick six pool of the winter meet – an estimated $750,000 including carryover – is up for grabs Thursday at Los Alamitos.

The $2 pick six has not been hit since Dec. 6, and the weeklong carryover is $145,797. Based on the carryover-divided-by-takeout calculation, new money into the Thursday pick six should exceed $600,000. The takeout rate is 23.68 percent.

Los Alamitos is the only California track that offers a traditional pick six, free from the single-ticket jackpot. Pick six payoffs at Los Alamitos are split 70-30, with 70 percent of net pool to perfect tickets or carryover, and 30 percent to consolations.

To win the pick six, races 4 to 9 Thursday, bettors must navigate full fields and construct a ticket without an obvious “single.” Even the shortest price in the program, Squared Shady in race 9, is not the most likely winner. Post time for the opening leg is 1:58 p.m. Pacific. Below is a look at the sequence.

Race 4

Los Alamitos runs more races at 5 1/2 furlongs than all other distances combined. The abbreviated trip has played fair to all styles this meet – 24 percent led gate to wire, 36 percent pressed from second or third, 40 percent won from the middle or back.

A full field entered this $8,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares, nonwinners of two, and bettors may need to go deep. Late-runner Real Good Deal returns from a four-month layoff with proven form over the track. Deltary returns from a similar layoff. Both fillies have run close enough to par (59 Beyer Speed Figure) to warrant inclusion.

The pace will be determined by last-out maiden winner Well Done Sally and dropper Ever Vigilant. In a field lacking serious speed, both probably should be used. Apache Pass merits consideration on the drop. Also-eligible program favorite Pasito finished second in a low-rated race 12 days ago. Her ability is marginal.

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Race 5

Apprentice rider Jessica Pyfer is 7 for 17 this meet from five furlongs to 5 1/2. She rides dropper Brilliant Bird in this five-furlong sprint, $6,250 claiming for fillies and mares. Brilliant Bird, a nine-time winner trained in Northern California by John Martin, is the fastest in the field based on figures. A potential pick six single, she is 7-2 second choice in the program. The favorite is last-out runner-up Purdue.

Race 6

A full field of $8,000 claiming veterans race one mile, and program favorite Fabozzi could shake loose dropping and stretching out from a $12,500 claiming sprint. The challenge is that two-turn races this meet have not been kind to speed – only two of the 17 routes have been won by the pacesetter.

If the front-runner misfires, it’s anyone’s race including longshots Most Determined and Lifeline. Black Storm, the program second choice, is a difficult read. He is best at one turn, but his recent form fits. He has been facing better.

Race 7

Anything goes in this mile race for fillies and mares, $12,500 claiming, nonwinners of two. Info’s Treasure returns from a four-month layoff; she finished second against similar last out. Lucky Stepper looms a contender if she transfers her grass form to dirt. A similar dilemma applies to surface-switching dropper Bella Figura.

Stretch-out sprinters Unchain Her Heart and Wine At Sunset add speed. Heart River and Realrealgood will rally late. This race is similar to race 4; it is a spread race.

Race 8

Captain Scotty looks obvious in this five-furlong claiming race. He won a Grade 2 in January, then tailed off until he dropped to this $25,000 claiming level in summer. His recent form is solid, including an allowance/optional-claiming sprint 11 days ago in which he smoked the meet’s fastest half and final time for 5 1/2 furlongs (44.71 and 1:02.30).

Captain Scotty is a deserving favorite, while in-form stablemate Blackout provides off-the-pace coverage. Northern California shipper Sequentially arrives in sharp form, and Oil Can Knight figures based on a fast sprint win two back.

The speedy Mr. Lovejoy will keep the pace honest, and late-runner Sweet River Baines won a $32,000 claiming race two back that suits this field. The bottom line: Captain Scotty is the one to catch, but this sprint is deeper than the favorite.

Race 9

Coco’s Joy should be tough in this sprint for 2-year-old maiden fillies bred in California. Trainer Eric Kruljac called her a “rocket out of the gate,” although she did not produce as much speed as expected in her career debut last month on turf.

Coco’s Joy seemed uncomfortable with the footing; she raced greenly on the turn and in the lane. A full sibling to million-dollar sprinter Richard’s Boy and second-start maiden winner Austin’s Boy, Coco’s Joy figures to pop the gate and wire the field over the track on which she has trained all year. The program favorite is four-start maiden Squared Shady, who finished three lengths in front of Coco’s Joy last out.