Top-shelf talent in compact Ashland lineup
LEXINGTON, Ky. – As a Grade 1 race with a purse of $500,000, the Ashland Stakes is the richest and one of the most prestigious preps for the May 6 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs. And when it is run Saturday at Keeneland as the sixth race on the Blue Grass Stakes card, it will have a select field worthy of its purse and Grade 1 status.
Three of its five entrants – Cathryn Sophia, Rachel’s Valentina, and Carina Mia – are widely considered the best East Coast-based Oaks prospects in a year when the West Coast-based champion Songbird remains a heavy early favorite for the race.
As a key final prep for the Kentucky Oaks, the Ashland offers 170 qualifying points toward the Oaks, with 100 going to the winner, 40 to the runner-up, 20 to third place, and 10 points to fourth. The first of five stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, the Ashland goes at 3:28 p.m. Eastern.
Although yet to race two turns or as far as 1 1/16 miles, the distance of the Ashland, Cathryn Sophia is a deserving favorite, installed at even-money. She has won all four of her races by large margins, including the Grade 2 Forward Gal by 5 1/2 lengths at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 30 and the Grade 2 Davona Dale by seven lengths there Feb. 27. The latter victory came with Javier Castellano aboard, her rider again in the Ashland.
While Cathryn Sophia has raced twice in 2016, Rachel’s Valentina and Carina Mia have been sidelined since last fall. Rachel’s Valentina hasn’t started since a runner-up finish to Songbird in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on Oct. 31, and Carina Mia has been away since taking the Grade 2 Golden Rod at Churchill Downs on Nov. 28.
John Servis, who trains Cathryn Sophia, is still expecting a stout test from the opposition.
“They’re trained by good guys that know what they’re doing,” he said of Rachel’s Valentina’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, and Carina Mia’s trainer, Bill Mott. “They’re going to be ready.”
Carina Mia was actually ready to return earlier, said Case Clay of Three Chimneys Farm, which owns the filly, but her first race of 2016 was delayed after Payson Park, where she was stabled this winter, was quarantined for three weeks in March after a horse tested positive for the equine herpesvirus.
Regular jockey Julien Leparoux returns aboard Carina Mia, one of two fillies in the race with victories on Keeneland’s dirt track, along with longshot Banree.
Rachel’s Valentina, by Bernardini and out of the superstar Rachel Alexandra, seems overlaid at her 3-1 morning-line price and figures to drop closer to 2-1, while Carina Mia figures to drift up from 7-5 on the morning line.
Rachel’s Valentina is the only Ashland entrant with Grade 1 experience. She won the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga in her second race last summer at Saratoga before her runner-up finish to Songbird in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she was beaten 5 3/4 lengths.
She has been training promisingly at Palm Beach Downs. Florent Geroux picks up the mount, subbing for John Velazquez, who is riding at Aqueduct on Saturday.
The remaining filly in the Ashland is 20-1 outsider Weep No More, who won the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 13.
Ashland, Race 6
Key Contenders
Cathryn Sophia, by Street Boss
Last 3 Beyers: 98-91-94
◗ After dominating on the lead in her first two starts, she showed a change in style by rallying from off the pace to win the Forward Gal and Davona Dale. In winning the latter race, she scored by seven lengths over Lewis Bay, the likely favorite in Saturday’s Grade 2 Gazelle Stakes at Aqueduct.
Rachel’s Valentina, by Bernardini
Last 3 Beyers: 90-81-79
◗ Pletcher is 5 for 16 in Grade 1 stakes on dirt at Keeneland since the Polytrack synthetic surface was replaced prior to the fall meet in 2014. Those winners include Carpe Diem in the 2014 Breeders’ Futurity and 2015 Blue Grass, Got Lucky in the 2015 Spinster, Liam’s Map in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and Stopchargingmaria in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
Carina Mia, by Malibu Moon
Last 3 Beyers: 88-97-81
◗ In her most recent race and her final start at 2, she spurted to the lead and pulled away to win the Golden Rod by 4 1/2 lengths over Stageplay. But Stageplay has not flattered her with her recent performances. After taking the Silverbulletday Stakes in January, she ran fifth in the Rachel Alexandra and sixth in the Fair Grounds Oaks over the last couple of months.