TimeformUS Road to the Derby: Hard to look past Caddo River at short price in Smarty Jones

Oaklawn | Race 8 | Post Time 4:11 p.m. (CT) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

Contrary to his generous morning-line price, #7 Caddo River is likely to go off as the prohibitive favorite in the first step along Oaklawn’s path to the Kentucky Derby. This Brad Cox-trained colt notably inserted himself into the Derby conversation when he trounced a maiden field by nearly 10 lengths at Churchill Downs after carving out some fast fractions on the front end. That victory was certainly encouraging, but I was perhaps more impressed with his effort two back at Belmont when he survived a taxing early pace to just miss against one of the best maiden fields assembled in New York last year. His impressive TimeformUS Speed Figure of 111 for that runner-up performance confirms the visual impression.

I’m not strongly against the likely second choice #3 Cowan, though I do question the quality of the Springboard Mile, his lone dirt route attempt. However, he could potentially regress off that speed figure and still complete the exacta here given the dearth of appealing form among the remaining options.

In searching for some value underneath, perhaps I might use a runner like #4 Big Thorn in the bottom rungs of exotic wagers. At least he’s shown some willingness to pass horses in the stretch, and he did chart a very wide path into the lane in the Mucho Macho Man. That said, I won’t pretend he’s a strong contender, and wouldn’t touch him at his morning line price of 9-2.

I’m not one who likes to default to favorites, but this race is straightforward. There will surely be more compelling wagering events ahead on the road to the Kentucky Derby, so I wouldn’t be looking to invest much in this relatively weak edition of the Smarty Jones.

THE PLAY

Exacta: 7 with 4
Trifecta: 7 with 3,4 with 3,4